First Look: Detroit remaining opponents

I’ve already taken a look at the six common opponents between the state’s two Division-1 teams, so let’s see what’s in store on the remainder of Detroit’s schedule (aside from Michigan, who will get their own preview treatment).

Full tempo-free numbers available for all of Division 1 here.

Georgetown

I remain skeptical that a Hoya is a real thing

March 3 (@Georgetown)

2011

7-7 (4-2 Big East), #17 Laxpower

Georgetown broke just about even in faceoffs and was almost exactly even in clearing percentage, but managed to be below-average in possession percentage, thanks to opponents’ greater number of clearing attempts. Georgetown was slightly above-average overall from a tempo-free perspective (they had the No. 18 offense in the land and No. 22 defense, schedule-adjusted), and their poor record speaks more to the quality of opposition faced – two ACC foes and two good Ivy League foes in the non-conference – more than a weak squad.

Detroit’s trip to D.C. on March 3 will be the first-ever meeting between the two teams. Last season, the Hoyas dispatched MAAC Jacksonville by a 15-12 score on the road.

Quinnipiac

This bobcat is looking extra-fierce

March 10 (@ Quinnipiac)

2011

7-7 (4-1 Northeast), #45 Laxpower

Quinnipiac got abuse on draws last year, to the tune of a .437 win percentage, good for No. 48 of 61 teams in Division-1. They did manage to clear much better than their opponents, thanks to the country’s seventh-best ride. That evened up the possession percentage somewhat, but they were still well below average in possession percentage. They had an efficient offense by the raw numbers (No. 15 in the country), but adjusted for a weak strength of schedule, it was only slightly above-average. This was a team that makes their hay in forcing transition opportunities (No. 17 in pace) thanks to their ride.

The Titans didn’t face Quinnipiac last year, but they did see the Bobcats in each of their first two seasons as a Division-1 program. Quinnipiac emerged with a 15-4 victory in 2009, and won 13-8 in 2010. Assuming (as we should) a linear progression in scores, the Titans are due to win this year’s game 12-11. SCIENCE!

Canisius

Fear the Griffin!

March 17 (@ Canisius)

2011

3-9 (3-3 MAAC), #52 Laxpower. Missed MAAC Tournament.

Canisius was good at exactly one thing last year: the ride. Their .807 opponents’ success rate was good for No. 15 in the land. The number is not adjusted for schedule strength, so it’s entirely possible that they simply played a lot of teams with poor sticks. They were below-average in every other metric, including both efficiency marks (and their poor faceoff performance game them the No. 47 possession percentage in the land).

Detroit needed overtime to beat Canisius last year, but Scott Harris completed the 10-9 win with a tally in the extra frame (his third goal of the game). The win over Canisius gave Detroit the No. 2 seed in the MAAC Tournament, where they would ultimately fall to Siena.

Marist

This is more cute than frightening.

March 24 (home)

2011

8-7 (4-2 MAAC), #47 Laxpower t-2nd MAAC, lost to Detroit in MAAC Tournament.

Marist was solidly middle-of-the-pack in just about every statistical measure. They ended up with exactly 50% possession on the season, and their offensive and defensive efficiencies were slightly below average when adjusted for competition (No. 37 and No. 38, respectively, though they’re both top-30 when not adjusted for schedule strength). Their ride/clear game was their strength last season. FOr a team that was mediocre or worse at everything else, they were both top 25 units.

The Titans saw Marist twice last year, in the penultimate regular-season game, which Marist won 14-13, and then in the opening round of the MAAC Tournament, where Detroit got revenge in the form of a 9-8 win.

Detroit was more efficient than Marist in both contests, but came out on the wrong end of the possession game the first time around.

Manhattan

What is a Jasper?

March 31 (@ Manhattan)

2011

3-13 (2-4 MAAC), #54 Laxpower. Missed MAAC Tournament.

Manhattan was a bad lacrosse team in 2011. Not only were they bad at getting possession of the ball (No. 56 at winning faceoffs, No. 58 on clears – although their No. 31 ride is decent, it might speak to quality of opposition), they were bad at scoring when they had it, with the No. 49-most efficient offense in the land. Their defense didn’t fare much better, either.

Detroit beat Manhattan 13-7 in the teams’ only contest of 2011 (and the only UDM game I caught in-person). Detroit’s defense was the story, with Jamie Hebden and Jordan Houtby tied for the team lead with three caused turnovers apiece.

Siena

"Saints" as in "Saint Bernards," rather than "canonized people." I can dig it.

April 7 (home)

2011

13-5 (5-1 MAAC), #29 Laxpower. Won MAAC Tournament. lost in NCAA Tournament first round to Syracuse.

I don’t think it’s unfair to say that Siena was the only legitimately good team in the MAAC in 2011. Marist and Detroit may have been on the cusp of that, but even the Red Foxes were ranked 18 spots behind Siena in the final Laxpower ratings.

The Saints were No. 23 in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, and No. 29 in adjusted defense. Their raw numbers were both top-20, so MAAC strength of schedule dragged them down there. Siena was also impressive in both possession percentage (No. 19) and pace (No. 7), giving them plenty of opportunities to capitalize on their efficiency margin.

The Titans handed Siena their first regular-season MAAC loss since 2008(!) last year, and they pulled it off on the road, no less. The 13-11 UDM win is the signature victory in the program’s history thus far, if you ask me. Siena got their revenge in the MAAC Tournament final, defeating a demoralized Titans squad without their best offensive player by a 12-3 score.

VMI

Fear the Keydets!

April 28 (@ VMI)

2011

2-11 (0-6 MAAC), #57 Laxpower.

In a conference known for its punching bags, VMI was the biggest punching bag of them all last year. The Keydets had offensive and defensive efficiencies in the bottom 10 nationally, which is especially unfortunate given that they actually managed to dominate possession, thanks to Stephen Robarge’s absurd success (.670!) on draws. They also played at a fast pace… mostly because other teams were able to take the ball from them and immediately score.

Detroit took a 13-9 victory over VMI at home last season. It wasn’t the Titans’ strongest performance, given the competition, but it opened conference play on a positive note, paving the way for a successful year.

A look at Michigan’s non-shared opponents coming up soon. Season preview is solidly under way.