Michigan Mini-Preview: Mercer

Since I just previewed Mercer a week ago when they faced off against Detroit, I’ll keep this brief. (Aso because the game is in less than an hour).

Mercer

Fear the Bear!

10:00 a.m. March 4, 2012
Jacsonville, Fla.
Free stream on Laxx.TV

2011
1-12 (0-12 Division-1), #61 Laxpower.

2012
0-4 (losses to Ohio State, North Carolina, Bellarmine, and Detroit).

Tempo-Free Profile

Mercer has played enough games to only look at this year’s stats, keeping in mind that they’ve played a couple middling-to-bad teams (according to LaxPower, that’s Bellarmine and Detroit), a mediocre team (Ohio State – though the Buckeyes will surely move up) and a good one (North Carolina).

Mercer is actually pretty good in the possession game: their faceoffs are great with Justin Evans at the helm, and that has given them an advantage despite awful clearing.

The awful clearing shows of a deflated skill level, as do their ugly, ugly number on offense and defense. This is still a bad team, albeit one that does something well (a monumental upgrade over last year).

Personnel

For a fuller picture of the Mercer personnel, check out last week’s Detroit preview.

Your offensive players to watch are attackmen Zach Ward and Cole Branch, aong with their linemate Jay DeBole. Midfielders Eion Collins and Brett Eisenmann are the only other Bears with more than a couple points.

Alex Goldsberry is the top defenseman for Mercer, along with Colin Brown and Josh Davidson, who have each started three of the Bears’ four games. Dillon Volk (4.08 s%, 16.00(!!!) GAA) has been the primary goalkeeper.

As mentioned above, FOGO Justin Evans is the lone bright spot on this team, winning .594 of his draws. He’s also added one goal on seven shots. In other transition news, the Bears are a bad clearing and riding team.

Big Picture

After a heartbreaker against Jacksonville, the Wolverines take the field for yet another chance at Win One. The key will be to keep emotion in check. It would be easy for the Wolverines to be emotionally drained on account of Friday’s tough result, or over-hyped with their eyes wide for the first win in program history.

Avoiding the mistakes that are common with an overly- or underly-emotional team – mistakes that Michigan has been making all year anyway – will be the key to victory. So will holding their own on faceoffs, and capitalizing on their advantage in all other phases of the game.

Elsewhere

Michigan game notes. Mercer official site preview. Full Mercer preview from GLS. Detroit v. Mercer game recap.

Predictions

My eyes were bigger than reality predicting a victory against Air Force (the Falcons also ran Quinnipiac off the field yesterday, so maybe they’re just good), and I was hesitant to say Michigan could tstick with Jacksonville yesterday. Obviously, I was wrong on both accounts.

• Mercer is going to win a lot of faceoffs. Keeping Evans from winning them cleanly will be the gameplan (similar to what it was against Denver and Chase Carraro). With that in mind, if Michigan’s wing play is improved, the performance on draws might not be that bad.
• Emil Weiss is back(!), and he looked much more comfortable in the clearing game than Dylan Westerhold ever has. That – and Mercer’s horrible ride – will help lead to a near-perfect clearing day for the Wolverines.
• Trevor Yealy picked up the program’s first hat trick on Friday, and I look for another Wolverine to do the same today. Detroit’s midfielders led the scoring charge against Mercer, so Alex Vasileff, Doug Bryant, and Willie Steenland are likely candidates.
• Michigan plays a clean game, as does Mercer. These aren’t very penalty-prone teams, and the extra-man units will play a very small role, if any.

Today is the day. Jacksonville would wipe the floor with Mercer, and the Wolverines hung with the Dolphins in a true road game. As long as Michigan’s emotional state isn’t too fragile – and the deficit on faceoffs isn’t the deciding factor – the Wolverines will come away with a relatively comfortable 13-8 win.