Air Force has been very up-and-down this year. That includes a narrow loss to Denver, but also a loss to Maruqette (a team that Michigan smoked in a starters-on-starters scrimmage in the preseason). The biggest question in this game might be which Air Force team shows up.
Is the bird part of the lightning or being struck by it?
Air Force
3 p.m. EST
March 30, 2013
Michigan Stadium (directions)
Live Stats. Live Video ($).
@GreatLaxState @UMichLacrosse
Michigan weekly release and .pdf notes.
Air Force release and .pdf notes.
Previously…
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule. Air Force’s schedule is No. 35 nationally, right near the middle of the pack. That’s a little misleading, since the Falcons have alternated really tough games with absolute breathers: there hasn’t bee a whole lot of in-between (of course, they lost one of those breathers, too).
| Air Force 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 67.22 (29) |
| Poss% | 47.60 (53) |
| Off. Eff. | 30.53 (29) |
| Def. Eff. | 28.86 (28) |
| Pyth% | 46.93 (37) |
From a pace perspective, the Academy is right near the middle of the pack, and slightly above the center. They control well under half of those possessions, however, so opponents’ pace may be determining things rather than the Falcons’ own.
That lack of possession has been one thing that has held them back from being a pretty good team this year. When you lose one-goal games to pretty good Bellarmine and Denver teams, it’s easy to play “what if.”
Offensive and defensive efficiencies are just above the midway point nationally, with the D just a tick better than the O. Neither stands out in any significant way.
All told, the average performances on offense and defense are dragged down just a bit by the poor possession percentage, and Air Force is just that: a little below average.
Offense
The Air Force offense is pretty balanced, with the top five scorers on the list moving down in nearly-perfect increments of three points. It’s an attack-driven unit, with juniors Mike Crampton (21G, 6A) and Holt alum Tommy McKee (22G, 2A) leading the way in points. The next-leading scorer is another attackman in sophomore Keith Dreyer, but unlike his linemates, he’s a true distributor. He has seven goals and 14 assists, and is more a creator than a scorer.
The three starting midfielders round out the remainder of the double-digit points scorers thus far this season. Juniors Erik Smith and Kyle Cassady have 18 and 11 points, respectively. Freshman Christopher Allen has rung up 15 so far.
There’s a big dropoff after the starters, so this isn’t a very deep offense. Nobody outside of junior midfielders Marcus Walker and Michael Curran even has double-digit shots, let alone points.
Dreyer is also the only big assist man on the team, and it’s not one that’s very assist-heavy. Shutting down individual dodgers and limiting Dreyer’s opportunities to distribute are the keys to slowing down this O.
Defense
Junior Matt Puleo, and freshmen Luke Leathers and Alex Warden have been consistent starters for the Air Force defense. It’s not a very experienced unit, nor a particularly big one: only Warden tops 200 pounds. He’s also the team’s leader in caused turnovers with 14 (though Puleo isn’t far behind with 12), and will likely be a star a couple years down the road. Sophomore Kyle O’Brien will get some time as well – it looks like he’s the starting LSM (the Air Force roster doesn’t differentiate).
Brenden Coleman is the key SSDM, based on the numbers. Poles Tom Harris and Jake Lindell also get some run. Like the offense, the defensive unit isn’t particularly deep.
The goalie has been senior Austin Fox. He’s gotten a bit of press as a great keeper in the past, but looking at the numbers, I’m not so sure. He’s barely saving .500 of shots faced, and if the NCAA’s stats website was up-to-date, that would drop him from No. 41 to No. 44 nationally. That ain’t good. His defense doesn’t seem to be doing him a ton of favors (that youth is no coincidence), but given that his personal numbers are way worse than the Air Force defense as a whole… yeah.
Special Teams
Air Force has been below 50% on faceoffs over the course of the season, with starting middie Erik Smith really struggling on draws. However, Bryan Price has come on as a faceoff specialist, and is doing very well: winning .569 of draws is great, and he’s picking up the majority of those wins himself. Should be a good battle with Brad Lott.
Air Force is a mediocre clearing team, and Michigan has alternated a heavy ride with practically no ride at all this year. A game like this is an opportunity to win a few possessions by being aggressive. Air Force doesn’t value their own ride, like, at all, allowing opponents to clear nearly 90% of the time. Michigan’s ride has had its share of struggles, but is mostly pretty good. They should have a good day there.
Air Force defines the stereotype of service academies being really disciplined by committing far fewer penalties than opponents. They convert at a reasonable clip, while their defense is actually excellent on the man-down. While this phase of the game has been an advantage for Michigan most of this year, expect a stalemate here.
Big Picture
Well, still a zero in that win column for the Wolverines. Taking this one would build momentum to probably pick up another one or two games to close out the year, and finish things on a positive note. It would also be the program’s first ECAC victory, a major milestone, obviously.
This is only Michigan’s second time this season playing opponents from the state of Michigan (Penn State boasted Brother Rice products Danny Henneghan and Nick Dolik), and Tommy McKee is probably the best active college player from the state – he’s certainly the most productive. A big contingent from Holt should make it out to the game.
Predictions
The aggregate numbers for Air Force actually make the Falcons look quite a bit better than the impression I get from evaluating the roster and talent itself…
- Brad Lott wins more than 50% of faceoffs. Although Air Force has discovered something that works in Price, he’s a good-not-great specialist. The Falcons also aren’t excellent on ground balls, so the U-M wings should be able to at least hold their own.
- Dreyer is a serious problem for the Michigan defense. The dodging attackman (especially one accompanied by linemates who can truly finish) is a bugaboo for this U-M team, and Dreyer is no different.
- Tommy McKee leads all scorers. Home-state bias? Sure, but he’s leading the Academy in goals on the year, and this is a game where the Falcons should have opportunities, if he’s willing to take them.
- Gerald Logan outduels Austin Fox, even if the numbers don’t show it. America’s easiest prediction.
- Michael Hernandez has more goals than turnovers. He’s one of the Wolverines’ best offensive midfielders, so it’s perhaps not the riskiest prediction, but Hernandez is also turnover-prone. Air Force isn’t great at causing turnovers, so he can keep it clean if he plays within himself.
Like I said, looking at Air Force in-depth leads me to believe they’re not as good – or perhaps “more vulnerable would be the better way to phrase it – than the No. 40 ranking in the nation would lead you to believe. However, I’ll still count on a Michigan after I see one. Falcons don’t pull away until the end, but win 11-9.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.