I ran down Michigan and Detroit’s common opponents yesterday, and since the Wolverines’ regular season begins before the Titans’, let’s look at the remainder of the U-M schedule.
Penn State
Fear the Nittany Lion!
Michigan: Feb. 8 (away)
2013
12-5 (6-0 CAA), #13 Laxpower, #6 Tempo-Free Lax
Penn State was a high-achieving squad last year, including an undefeated run through the Colonial Athletic Association and culminating in a defeat to Yale in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Nittany Lions will try to take the next step this year, though the CAA’s automatic bid is not on the table thanks to some petty athletic director bickering on account of the creation of the Big Ten Conference (starting next season).
The Past Results
As was often the case last season, Michigan ran pretty tight with Penn State for a half before running out of gas and giving up a big run en route to an 11-6 defeat. Excellent goalkeeping by Gerald Logan held PSU’s score down, but five goals on five SOGs in the third quarter opened up a comfortable Nittany Lion margin, and they cruised to the finish.
As was the case last year, this is the first regular-season game of the Wolverines’ season. We got to experience freshman phenom Kyle Jackson (2G, 1A) for the first time, and though Michigan was playing slightly shorthanded, there were glimpses of a positive future for Michigan. Everybody who scored for U-M last year returns this season, as well.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Penn State 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 64.00 (46) |
| Poss% | 53.81 (5) |
| Off. Eff. | 31.08 (24) |
| Def. Eff. | 25.07 (7) |
| Pyth% | 75.72 (6) |
Penn State’s top unit was the defense last year, led by exceptional goalkeeper Austin Kaut. He’s a preseason All-American by just about everyone in the country, so don’t expect any dropoff between the pipes. Defensemen Steven Bogert, JP Burnside, Jack Donnelly, and Tyler Travis all return, as does SSDM Michael Richards. This defense should be ridiculous. Nittany Lions won’t be giving up many goals.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State was above average, but not elite. Leading scorer Jack Forster has graduated, but attackman TJ Sanders was second on the list – and just a freshman. Shane Sturgis and perfectly-named Tommy LaCrosse are back, as well. Brother Rice alum Nick Dolik was fifth on the team in scoring, and has graduated, but as long as Penn State can adapt to not running through Forster, the offense should take another step forward.
The possession game is a big question mark. Brother Rice alum Danny Henneghan was one of the country’s best FOGOs last year, and took all but 10 draws(!) for the Nittany Lions last year. Whoever replaces him will not have a ton of recent experience, and one must assume he’ll be a downgrade from Henneghan. The Nittany Lions were a great clearing team and a good-not-great riding team last year, so their possession advantage will likely take a step back.
Johns Hopkins
The first bird-based mascot in the Big Ten.
Michigan: Feb. 22 (away)
2013
9-5, No. 3 LaxPower, No. 2 Tempo-Free Lacrosse
From this observer’s estimation, the end of Hopkins’s infinity-year NCAA Tournament streak last year was nothing other than a bad beat. Despite not running up a pristine record, the Blue Jays had one of the best squads in the country. This year, they’ll be out for blood, trying to prove that it was a one-year aberration, not the end of the Hopkins dynasty (even though JHU is actually joining a conference – the Big Ten – for the first time ever next season).
The Past Results
Michigan traveled to Baltimore last spring, and things did not go well. The Wolverines scored the first goal of the game, then didn’t find the back of the net again until after letting Hopkins build an 8-1 lead. After that point, U-M played a relatively good game to only be outscored 9-7, but yeah, that’s not a good look when you’re starting from seven goals back.
Eight different Blue Jays had multi-point outings, seven of whom had multiple goals (the last, midfielder John Greeley, had two assists). The efficiency margin wasn’t that bad for Michigan – the deficit was less than .018 – but Hopkins absolutely dominated possession. Unstoppable Faceoff God Mike Poppleton won 17 of 18 draws before JHU coach Dave Pietremala let some of his depth players see the field. They still managed to go 8/11.
Bright spots for Michigan were two goals apiece for Kyle Jackson and Peter Kraus, and a 12-save game out of Gerald Logan.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Johns Hopkins 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 68.64 (20) |
| Poss% | 55.46 (2) |
| Off. Eff. | 30.56 (27) |
| Def. Eff. | 24.32 (4) |
| Pyth% | 80.03 (2) |
Hopkins has been known as something of a slowdown team, so playing at above-average pace was a welcome change. The Jays felt comfortable doing that because they dominated the draws with Poppleton there, and although he’s gone, new top man Mike Kennedy was damn good as well. They should be able to not slide too much there. Hopkins had a great clear (you’d expect that from teams with good athletes and good sticks, right?) and unlike a lot of top teams, they rode pretty hard at times.
Offensively, Wells Stanwick led the way in scoring, and although he’s a preseason All-American (honorable mention) according to IL, he’s not yet the player that older brother Steele was at Virginia. Senior midfielder Rob Guida is the other dangerman, though he missed most of last season due to injury. Zach Palmer and John Ranagan depart, but the Jays return plenty of talent, and should be expected to add more through recruiting.
LSM Michael Pellegrino is Hopkins’ only second-team All-American according to Inside Lacrosse, and the only defensive player honored by the publication at all. Chris Lightner and Tucker Durkin are both gone, as is goalkeeper Pierce Bassett. While Hopkins had an extremely good defense last year, it’s fair to assume they’ll take a step back.
Cornell
Bears: considered way scarier than the color red. FACT.
Michigan: March 1 (home – Oosterbaan Fieldhouse)
2013
14-4 (6-0 Ivy), #1 Laxpower, #1 Tempo-Free Lacrosse
Cornell was the best team in the country last year, and although the Big Red fell to Duke in the NCAA Tournament, they finished atop the heap by all the advanced stat dudes (myself included). The Ivy League is a tough conference, and they ran through it undefeated – but their defeat in the league tournament final foreshadowed the Duke loss.
The Past Results
This will be Michigan’s first-ever matchup with the Big Red. Probably a good thing to do it the year after they lose Rob Pannell.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Cornell 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 74.72 (4) |
| Poss% | 51.15 (21) |
| Off. Eff. | 38.59 (6) |
| Def. Eff. | 24.37 (5) |
| Pyth% | 82.75 (1) |
Cornell was elite at just about everything last year, so we’ll start with the one area that gave them occasional struggles – possession. Doug Tesoriero was good on draws, and the Big Red emphasized the ride more than most elite teams tend to. What was the problem then? A surprisingly weak clearing game, barely above the midway mark in the nation.
Cornell had firepower on firepower last year. Rob Pannell put up a huge 102-point year, Steve Mock scored 60 goals, Max Van Bourgondien was fourth on the team in scoring, and Connor English was sixth. The good news? All those dudes are gone. An absurdly prolific offense losing that amount of talent… probably won’t repeat as absurdly prolific. Junior midfielder Connor Buczek and attackman Matt Donovan (both preseason AA selections) are the leading returners, but it’s clear that the offense will have to be re-shaped.
On the defensive side of the ball, Matt Noble is gone, but Tom Freshour and Jordan Stevens return. That’s not the whole unit, but it’s a pretty good returning corps. Unfortunately, goalkeeper AJ Fiore is also out the door. He played all but about 45 minutes of the season, and saved well over half the shots he faced. He’s a big loss.
Clearly, Cornell has lost the most important pieces of every unit on the field. While that doesn’t mean they’re going to be at Michigan’s level, it sure means they aren’t likely to repeat as the TFL Mythical National Champion.
High Point
No Panther in the logo :-/
Michigan: March 5 (away)
2013
3-12, #60 LaxPower, #60 Tempo-Free Lax
High Point was a first-year team last season, and actually achieved pretty well, all things considered. Three wins is a good debut season, even if Marquette managed to outdo HPU with a 5-9 year. Expect the standard step forward in year two.
The Past Results
Michigan actually managed to – gulp – lose to High Point last year, in one of its most disappointing performances on the season. A 4-4 first quarter was followed by three straight quarters of a one-goal deficit on Michigan’s end. U-M’s big problem was its tendency to turn the ball over (particularly on clears), combined with getting dominated on ground balls.
Practically the entire Michigan offense ran through freshman midfielders Mike Hernandez (four goals) and Kyle Jackson (a goal and four assists). Hernandez, however, was one of Michigan’s turnover culprits with three – D-middie Dan Kinek was up there as well. Michigan got many fewer shots off than the Panthers, despite 10 a pop from Hernandez and Jackson.
Goalie Gerald Logan made 16 saves, and it still wasn’t enough for his team to win. For all the turnover issues, the defense wasn’t up to snuff either. Dan Lomas and Matt Thistle were the main beneficiaries of that, with six points each.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| High Point 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 68.07 (24) |
| Poss% | 47.60 (53) |
| Off. Eff. | 24.50 (59) |
| Def. Eff. | 37.45 (57) |
| Pyth% | 16.60 (60) |
Lomas and Thistle were High Point’s leading scorers last year, and although it was a first-year program, they actually lost No. 3 Michael Messenger coming into 2014 (he transferred to D-2 Limestone). The rest of the squad pretty much returns intact… but as you can see at the left, it ain’t much to build upon.
It’s a similar story on defense. Goalie Austin Geisler is back, as are defensemen Garrett Swaim, Jeff Hale, and Pat Farrell. Harris Levine seems to be the primary LSM from last year, and he’s back as well. As is the case with the offense, however, there’s a long road to respectability. Returning experience should help move in that direction, of course.
The Possession game is a relative bright spot, all things considered. New squads are generally terrible clearing the ball, and High Point was actually outside of the bottom quarter of the country. That’s a good building block, on top of which they’ll be adding more good athletes through recruiting. They also rode hard (nascent teams are likely to do that), so if that is scaled back, those factors might balance out. They were just below average on faceoffs, thanks to Jamie Piluso. If he goes wire-to-wire as the starter this year (a few others got a chance last season), the Panthers should get to about .500 on draws, if not better.
Furman
I feel like joust-as-lacrosse-stick is an underused graphic gimmick here. Step it up.
Michigan: March 8 (away)
This will be the first year of Furman’s program, so there’s not any past evidence to build a basis on them. the general picture is that new programs are sort of terrible until a couple years in, so that’s positive for Michigan’s shot. Negatives include that it’s the second game of a road swing that includes two games over four days, but in Year Three, Michigan should have enough to take care of it.
The key guy to watch for Furman will be Syracuse LSM transfer Ralph D’Agostino. He’s preseason all-conference in his first year at the new school, after being a contributor for the Orange during his true freshman season.
Maryland
I don’t have a joke to make about this logo :/
Michigan: March 18 (home)
2013
10-4 (2-1 ACC). #5 LaxPower, #3 Tempo-Free Lacrosse
Maryland is obviously one of the traditional powers in the sport, and U-M’s scheduling of them would normally be a big deal. Of course, they’re joining the Big Ten next year, so this will be a conference matchup going forward. The Terrapins were an elite team last year, but their performance in the NCAA Tournament (a first-round blitzing by Cornell) put a huge damper on what was otherwise an excellent season.
The Past Results
First (of many) matchups between Maryland and Michigan.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Maryland 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 64.29 (44) |
| Poss% | 53.22 (6) |
| Off. Eff. | 34.64 (14) |
| Def. Eff. | 25.80 (11) |
| Pyth% | 78.81 (3) |
Starting with Pace and Possession, since Maryland had a certain… reputation… as a slowdown team (a fairly accurate description) over the past couple seasons. They’re good at controlling the rock, and once they get it, they like to slow things down. Faceoff specialist Jesse Bernhardt departs, but the Terps had Andrew Holmes get some experience last year – in which he performed well. A dropoff – but not a big one – is likely, but I see Maryland running with the same style.
Since they’re a slowdown, rely-on-the-D type of team, let’s look at that defense. Poles Mike Erhardt (first-team) and Goran Murray (second-team) are IL pre-season All-Americans, and goalie Niko Amato is behind only PSU’s Kaut among keepers. Casey Ikeda, the third starter on D, doesn’t get the same level of acclaim, but he’s an experienced senior. The defense should be as good as ever in College Park.
Offensively, leading scorer Kevin Cooper is gone, as are No. 3 Owen Blye, No. 4 John Haus, and No. 5 Jake Bernhardt. That’s a lot of production (124 of Maryland’s 253 total points last year from that quartet alone), but the talent is seemingly always there at Maryland. Senior middie Mike Chanenchuk and junior attack Jay Carlson are the leading returners, and new players will have to step up around them.
St. Joseph’s
Fear the Hawk
Michigan: March 22 (home)
2013
5-11 (1-5 CAA), #55 LaxPower, #58 Tempo-Free Lax
St. Joseph’s actually didn’t have that bad a record last year (not that they were the ’85 Bears or anything), so it’s a surprise that their ratings were more in the Michigan range than, say, Delaware, who was one game in the loss column better, playing in the same conference. HOWEVA, they lost three games by double digits, and one to that Michigan team, so…
The Past Results
That’s right, Michigan won a game last year, and they have the opportunity to continue a win streak (for the first time ever, since they didn’t play Mercer in 2013). The two teams played pretty even through three quarters – neither built a lead of more than two goals – before Michigan owned the fourth to bring home the second win in program history.
Brad Lott won 12 of 20 faceoffs, and in a game that came down to the fourth quarter (where he won three of four draws), that can be the difference. Unsurprisingly, Gerald Logan was a rock between the pipes, saving nearly two-thirds of shots faced.
Thomas Paras – in perhaps the only game he played fully healthy all year – scored three goals and assisted on two more. Kyle Jackson scored two himself while adding two assists. Outside of those two, it was a relatively balanced offensive output. Will Meter scored two goals, but five separate Wolverines notched a single point.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| St. Joseph’s 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 56.75 (62) |
| Poss% | 44.44 (61) |
| Off. Eff. | 24.32 (60) |
| Def. Eff. | 35.33 (52) |
| Pyth% | 17.06 (58) |
That’s a pretty dismal profile. St. Joseph’s played slow all year, but based on their individual factors – can’t possess, can’t score, can’t defend – that was probably all they could do to avoid being blown out in most of their games.
Will Abbott was the primary faceoff specialist last year, and while he wasn’t great by any stretch (.450 on the year), I’ve seen that faceoffs are not all that correlated year-to-year. Decent clear, poor ride, and faceoffs are the one area that St. Joseph’s can take a step up to possess the ball more.
The offense was nearly as bad as the possession game. The bright side is that least year’s scoring unit was led by a freshman (Pat Swanick) and sophomore (Matthew Sarcona) in the attack, and a sophomore (Michael Dougherty) and junior (Johnny Simanski) in the midfielder. All four return, so despite losing the fifth- and sixth-leading scorers, the nucleus of the O is back. That it was as bad as it was in the second year under the same offensive staff is still a question mark.
On defense, Will Farrell, Kevin Barrow, and John Moran all return, as does goalie Dustin Keen. This unit was stronger than the O last year, and if they can benefit from a simple decrease in number of opportunities, getting worn out won’t happen as quickly. I see another step forward here.
Air Force
Is the bird part of the lightning or being struck by it?
Michigan: March 29 (away)
2013
7-7 (2-5 ECAC), #27 LaxPower, #29 Tempo-Free Lax
Air force has seemed to build momentum a couple times in recent history, but has been unable to get over the hump. A loss to Marquette last spring, for example, was a pretty disappointing result. They’ve been a middling ECAC squad, and with the league dissipating after this spring, who knows what the slightly-more-distant future holds?
The Past Results
Michigan – say it with me now – played even with Air Force for a while, then gave up a big run, and recovered to finish the game even. It’s stopping that run – 9-0 in this instance – that is the killer. Holt native Tommy McKee put up two goals and an assist in the Falcons’ win.
For Michigan, the usual suspects stood out. Mike Hernandez and Kyle Jackson each scored two goals, as did attackman Will Meter. Gerald Logan made 11 saves while giving up 10 goals. The Wolverines fought pretty even in possession, but during the Air Force run, the make-it, take-it nature really prevented them from slowing down the Falcons’ momentum.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Air Force 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 67.36 (26) |
| Poss% | 48.57 (45) |
| Off. Eff. | 31.24 (22) |
| Def. Eff. | 28.85 (22) |
| Pyth% | 51.73 (29) |
Air Force’s numbers were pretty consistent across the board – mid-20s – except for their deficit in possession. The odd thing is that they weren’t poor in any particular facet of the possession game, just not far above average in anything. Two faceoff specialists split time, and both return for their senior years. Bryan Price was better than Erik Smith, but it looks like there was a concentrated effort to give them about the same number of opportunities.
Smith was not a true FOGO, coming in third on the Falcons’ point list, as well. Everyone who joined him in the top six returns this spring (including McKee), so continued development of the offense is expected. Since Smith was the less successful of the faceoff specialists, it might be wise to let him focus a bit more on offense (unless the fast-break opportunities he creates are too much to pass up).
Things aren’t as rosy on defense, where goalie Austin Fox is no longer between the pipes. Matt Puleo and Alex Warden should anchor the defense, with sophomore Luke Leathers stepping up into a bigger role. Without Fox around, the goalie won’t likely be able to see as much rubber as he did and let as few goals through.
Fairfield
#Stagswag
Michigan: April 5 (home)
2013
8-7 (4-3 ECAC), #29 LaxPower, #34 Tempo-Free Lax
Fairfield made it into the top four in the ECAC last year, and in the last season of the league’s existence, they simply have to beat out one team (Michigan, most likely) to repeat the feat. They have bigger goals in mind though, with hopes of taking the next step into the NCAA Tournament. Maybe a tall task.
The Past Results
Michigan played Fairfield pretty close on the road last year, perhaps one of their best performances given the location and quality of opponent. A two-goal loss was a pretty good result for last year’s Michigan team, and Fairfield was on the cusp of the national top-half.
Mike Hernandez put up a goal and two assists, David Joseph had one of each, and David McCormack and David Joseph both had two-goal outings. Five of Michigan’s eight goals were assisted, one of the stronger team-play experiences of the year. Brad Lott had a great day on faceoffs, winning 12 of 18, and Gerald Logan (no surprise) saved 17 of 27 shots faced.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Fairfield 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 61.72 (55) |
| Poss% | 49.62 (34) |
| Off. Eff. | 29.92 (32) |
| Def. Eff. | 30.94 (32) |
| Pyth% | 46.23 (34) |
Fairfield played pretty slowly last year, but everything else was pretty much smack-dab in the middle of the country.
On faceoffs, Michael Roe was actually pretty good, but the overall number looks worse because of other players getting run. He’s back for his fifth year in the program. The Stags were average (duh) in clearing, and didn’t really care to ride much.
Jordan Greenfield, last year’s leading scorer, is back, and after No. 2 scorer Sam Snow, so too are Nos. 3-7 (including “my name is only a little less perfect than Tommy Lacrosse” Tristan Sperry). This is a pretty deep unit with plenty of returning experience. Depth and experience don’t guarantee a good offense, but they don’t hurt.
Goalie Jack Freshour played every second between the pipes last year, and he’s back. Greg Perraut and Toby Armour return in front of him, and though Dan Niebler is gone, there shouldn’t be too much dropoff from one piece of the defense heading out of town. Armour was the team’s enforcer last year, and with Thomas Lukavic returning healthy this year, they should be a tough unit.
Ohio State
A nut with a body. And a lacrosse stick.
Michigan: April 12 (away)
2013
13-4 (5-2 ECAC), #14 Laxpower, #9 Tempo-Free Lax
On the backs of a really good defense and a really good offense, Ohio State put together a great season last year. Despite most of the offensive firepower leaving, they might be even better on defense this year, and that could lead to taking the next step as a program – after winning a tournament game last spring.
The Past Results
Michigan played Ohio state surprisingly close in 2012, but got blown out last year in Michigan Stadium. As usual, the big runs doomed Michigan. The Buckeyes had four- and seven-goal stretches without a Wolverine response that doomed U-M. Aside from that, it would have been a pretty close game, but like, those count too.
Thomas Paras has a huge game against his home-state school, with four goals and an assist on seven shots. Kyle Jackson had two goals and Mike Hernandez had a goal and an assist. Gerald Logan faced 27 shots, but against the likes of Logan Schuss, he wasn’t going to repeat his typical .500-plus performance.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Ohio State 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 64.78 (43) |
| Poss% | 53.00 (7) |
| Off. Eff. | 34.67 (13) |
| Def. Eff. | 28.40 (19) |
| Pyth% | 72.92 (9) |
Fortunately, Logan Schuss ain’t walkin’ through that door this year. Neither is Dominique Alexander, one of the best true assist-men on the squad. Jesse King, Carter Brown and Turner Evans, on the other hand are back. Still, a talent like Schuss’s can’t be replaced that easily. There will be some growing pains, at the very least.
Defenseman Joe Meurer is a first-team preseason All-America selection by IL, and he’s joined by honorable mentions Dominic Imbordino and Darius Bowling (LSM), and goalie Greg Dutton. The defensive unit should be strong as ever – and they might need to be a bit stronger than last year to make up for some offensive losses.
The possession game should also see a bit of dropoff. FOGO Trey Wilkes has graduated, and he was one of the nation’s best last year. The Buckeyes were a great clearing team last year, and that should continue with most of the defense and midfield back, and they don’t concentrate much on the ride.
Yale
I think they just adapted a crew logo for this.
Michigan: April 19 (away)
2013
12-5 (4-2 Ivy), #7 Laxpower, #7 Tempo-Free Lax
Yale was sort of sneaky-good last year, starting out 3-3 before putting together a really solid backend to the season, losing only to Maryland and Syracuse both on the road (‘Cuse in the NCAA Tournament) to close the season. The Elis played close with a really good Cornell team, but weren’t good enough to upset the Big Red and win the conference.
The Past Results
This will be the first meeting between Michigan and Yale.
The Forward-Thinking Look Back
| Yale 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 63.19 (51) |
| Poss% | 53.81 (5) |
| Off. Eff. | 31.19 (23) |
| Def. Eff. | 25.95 (12) |
| Pyth% | 74.64 (7) |
Yale’s primary strength last year was a dominating possession game (which, when combined with a pretty slow pace of play, means the Bulldogs faced very few opponent possessions). Senior faceoff specialist Dylan Levings should be able to reprise his standout performance from last year. The clear and ride games were good but nothing special, so it’s all about Levings and his .597 rate.
Attack Brandon Mangan is a third-team pre-season All-American to IL, and he put up 64 points last year. Conrad Oberbeck, the second-leading scorer, is also back, but No. 3 Corey Zdrill has graduated. Colin Flaherty and Ryan McCarthy are back along with Mangan, so most of the scoring punch is back.
It’s the defense that is decimated (though it was pretty good last year). Starting poles Michael McCormack and Peter Johnson are both gone. Michael Quinn started as a freshman, but without the senior support around him, he’ll have to adjust to a new role. In goal, Eric Natale is back.
Stay tuned in coming days, when I’ll run down the rest of the schedules for each team, and then get into full-on season previewin’ mode.