MAAC Bracketology

I ran through the bracketology for the ECAC yesterday (while admittedly keeping things a little open-ended), and it’s time to take a look at the possibilities for each team – particularly Detroit – in the more-complicated MAAC.

The Scene

The MAAC schedule is much more even than that of the ECAC, with every team in the league having played either three or four games to date. In a seven-team conference, that means teams either have two games remaining (if they’ve already played four) or three (if that’s the number they’ve already played).

Siena – as has often been the case over the course of league history – looks like the class of the MAAC, whereas new program Monmouth is struggling in its first year as a Division-1 program.

What We Know Now

Since none of the four-games-played teams are either undefeated or winless, there is one more weekend necessary to officially eliminate anyone or say for sure that a given team has made the field. With the – fairly safe – assumption that Monmouth won’t knock off anyone in the league (maybe not that safe, since they still face the two worst teams in conference play and host a Detroit team that can be up-and-down), I would rule them out.

Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision

Siena and Quinnipiac control their own destiny by being right next to each other at the top of the standings (with Quinnipiac’s loss coming to Marist, which doesn’t look likely to figure into the conference title race). Detroit is close, with a game this weekend against Siena – and just two of the worst three teams in the league following that – but needs a Quinnipiac loss to have a guaranteed shot at the conference crown. That overtime loss to the Golden Griffins hurst, especially since it should have been a regulation win.

The four-spot looks to be a battle between Canisius, Manhattan, and Marist, with a slight possibility that one of those top three teams drops down (though there would be some tiebreaker anarchy in play, as well).

Siena cannot finish behind Monmouth or Marist, barring weird tiebreaker scenarios that are certain to not come into play. Quinnipiac can’t finish behind Monmouth. Beyond that, just about everything else is up in the air.

This Weekend

Marist is the team with the league bye this week (they also don’t have a weekend game at all, traveling to Hofstra tonight then taking a casual 11-day break before seeing Monmouth). The three games that are on the docket can all have an impact on the conference race, however.

I’m operating on the (as noted above, perhaps faulty) assumption that Manhattan will be able to take care of Monmouth at home Saturday. That would effectively eliminate the Hawks from MAAC tournament contention, and go a long way toward keeping Manhattan ahead of Marist in the pecking order for that fourth spot. Since I’m assuming an outcome there, that means there are two meaningful games this weekend.

The headliner is the Siena/Detroit contest. The league’s top team against the No. 3 squad could see a shakeup in the table. A Siena win doesn’t seal the league, but it could set up a massive 1v2 battle the following weekend against Quinnipiac. A Detroit win results in what is effectively a three-way tie at the top of the league, unless the Golden Griffins fall to Canisius (which would be a totally reasonable outcome).

Although the stakes are somewhat different as a 2v4 battle, the Quinnipiac/Canisius game could be even more interesting, and might have greater long-term implications. A Quinnipiac win combined with a Siena win means those two teams are basically locked into the top two spots in the conference – and they’d battle for top honors the following weekend. A Quinnipiac loss suddenly makes Marist (which, it must be noted won the league last year an extreme longshot to make the MAAC Tournament.

Here are tables of the possible outcomes (assuming Manhattan beats Monmouth because that’s just a headache I don’t need right now. We saw a huge upset on the final day of the regular season last year though, so anything is possible), and where they’d see the standings look when the dust settles Sunday morning:

Detroit is down tiebreakers to both teams clearly ahead of them in the standings, but would actually own the tiebreaker over Canisius should they finish tied in the standings (as they’d likely be once they’d play the same number of conference games in the scenario on the right). Monmouth would be down tiebreakers to Manhattan and Canisius (two teams who could finish with four losses, assuming Monmouth suddenly went on a tear) and be eliminated regardless of how they finish their season.

In this scenario, UDM is tied with Siena, in possession of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Whether that’s for the 1-2 spots or the 2-3 spots depends upon Quinnipiac. If the Golden Griffins lose, there’s suddenly a decent chance that they don’t even make the conference tournament. Same with the Bearcats.

If Monmouth can knock of Manhattan, the Hawks are no longer out of contention, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Marist is also hanging on by a thread – the Red Foxes almost certainly need to win their final two conference games to have a shot at the league tournament – so they’ll be scoreboard watching with extreme interest this Saturday.

The Big Picture

Other than this weekend’s game, Detroit actually has a pretty easy finish to the league slate. Barring a major slipup on the road against Manhattan or Monmouth, the Titans can’t finish any worse than 4-2, which would guarantee a seat at the MAAC Tournament table. As we saw last year, that’s all they need.

The ease of the final two games also draws into relief just how important this weekend’s contest against Siena is. It’s a one-game playoff for the opportunity to win the MAAC regular-season title. That would be a program first.