Michigan preview: Bellarmine

Posting the D-1 previews out of order for this weekend, since I just profiled Bellarmine last week when they played Detroit so this one will be quicker. Michigan heads down to face the Knights on the road tomorrow.

Bellarmine

Fear the stylized Knights!

March 15, 2014. 1 p.m. EDT
Louisville, Ky.
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Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. The figures are also adjusted for strength of schedule, so Bellarmine’s No. 53 slate so far rounds things downwards a bit. That number should be a bit stronger by the end of the season, but Bellarmine has not played a murderer’s row yet.

Bellarmine has moved slightly backward in just about anything since the Detroit game preview. There are two reasons for that: 1) not blowing out Detroit is a negative result, given what the computers saw as the difference in quality between these two teams, and 2) Bellarmine got smoked by a previously-struggling Air Force team last weekend.

The Knights play a pretty fast brand of lacrosse, both because they’re willing to score a lot against overmatched teams and because they emphasize the ride, resulting in a lot of up-and-down play. Even though they ride very well and clear decently, they’re just mediocre in possession.

The offense has had its moments – double-digits in three of five games so far – but it has done so against some pretty weak defenses. The Detroit game (12 goals against a top-25 defense) and Air Force (the No. 24 D) are the only times they saw good units on that side of the ball.

The offense, on the other hand, has struggled. Given that Bellarmine emphasizes the ride – which generally leads to transition opportunities – their 6v6 offense seems to be pretty bad (and the eyeball test against Detroit bears that out: four transition scores and two EMO goals).

Add it all up, and Bellarmine looks like a pretty solid team this year, though their only contest against a team in their ranking cohort saw them lose to Air Force.

Offense

From the earlier preview:

A pair of freshmen attackmen dominate the offense, at least when it comes to putting the ball in the net. Tucker Ciessau and onetime Michigan commit Austin Shanks have ten and six goals, respectively, with nary a single assist between them. They are pure finishers, and probably do a lot of their work on the dodge – barely more than half of Bellarmine’s total goals this year are assisted.

Midfielders Chad Mitchell and Ryan Scinta provide some balance, with three goals and three assists apiece. They’re also the upperclassman leadership of the offense, a senior and junior, respectively. Mitchell has earned all three starts (Scinta hasn’t started yet this year, though he’s clearly getting significant time), and is shooting less accurately.

Beyond that top group, there are a number of players with similar production – two goals and an assist or vice versa – and they’re all listed at midfield. Clearly, some of them have to play attack, but are not listed as such. Ben Charpentier is the only listed attackman among them, but he’s not listed with any starts, either.

Since that time, Ciessau has continued to pace the Knights while Shanks has kept close right behind him (they’re both still looking for assist No. 1 on the year, though). Mitchell and Scinta have been joined by fellow midfielder, senior Canadian Cameron Gardner, in that second tier. All are pretty apt to either score or dish, and Bellarmine’s assist ratio has climbed in recent games.

Bellarmine’s strengths match up pretty well with Michigan’s weaknesses – attackmen who are bigtime scorers have long been a bugaboo for this Michigan team. Since they don’t assist… at all, thus far in their college careers, they’re a little less threatening, but I’ll believe Michgian can shut one down when I see it.

There’s also an interesting factor of Shanks having been committed to Michigan before switching to Bellarmine. The U-M coaches are bound to have a good handle on his strengths and weaknesses, so that could help them slow him down more than they’re typically able to.

Defense

Again, from the prior preview:

This is where Bellarmine has excelled the past couple seasons. Goalie Will Haas is certainly not Dillon Ward, but at least in this early going has not been a significant downgrade. Haas is saving .660 of shots faced (Ward was close at .662 last year), but that’s against some offenses that doesn’t have the type of firepower UDM has. This should be his biggest test yet this season.

Fortunately for Haas, he has some really good players to help him out. Sean Joyce started every game last year, and the 6-2, 200-pounder has the body to be an intimidator as a senior – he’s leading the team in caused turnovers thus far this season with six. Junior LSM Bobby Schmitt is one of the country’s most underrated players, and would be a star on a team with more publicity. Colin Hart started six games last year, and the junior has earned the nod in all three thus far this season. Both have five caused turnovers already.

The weak link should be sophomore Shane Healey, who had only three games’ experience (all off the bench) as a freshman. He has all three starts at close defense so far this year, but is clearly not as heralded as his teammates.

After facing two decent offenses, Haas is down to .562 on the year, but with Michigan’s recent inability to solve good keepers, that might not mean much. The Bellarmine defense, to my surprise (especially for a unit that sees a lot of opponent turnovers on the ride) doesn’t get out and pressure to cause a ton of turnovers.

Michigan’s offense might be one of the most talented Bellarmine has seen yet (I would put it at No. 2 behind Air Force and ahead of Robert Morris), but the Wolverines have been plagued by inconsistency at times. A week off to prepare and get their minds right could be just what they need to refocus and come out ready to execute a gameplan, however.

Special Teams

Piece-by-piece:

Bellarmine has not been a good faceoff team this year, but nor was VMI going into last weekend and they suddenly snapped into form. Look for a few players to get run, particularly if the Knights don’t see early success on draws. Senior Stephen Soriano has been most-deployed, and has won .448 on the year. Freshman Tyler Nangle has done slightly better, but on fewer opportunities (the differences at this point can be explained by small sample size). Detroit should be able to win possessions here.

Soriano has improved to .477 on the season, thanks in part to a lot of 50/50 GB wins by his wing players against Detroit. Michigan’s Brad Lott was rounding into one of the best faceoff men in the nation, then had a very rough week in the Carolinas the last two times out. The expectation is still that either he or Will Biagi will be able to come out and win more than half the draws.

Next:

Bellarmine has been an excellent clearing team this far this year, albeit against two really bad teams and one decent team (Robert Morris) that has not emphasized the ride at all. Detroit is capable of riding pretty heavily, and should be able to steal a couple possessions, but I wouldn’t expect the Titans’ transition defense to be a game-changer here.

They’ve cooled off a bit after playing some decent riding squads, but they still are doing pretty well in that regard – a top-15 squad. Michigan’s 10-man backfired against Bellarmine last year, so look for the Wolverines to ride heavy without going to extreme tactics.

The BU ride was also part of Michigan’s lack of success last year, and they’re doubling down on that this year by riding hard. Michigan has cleared very well, but there are opportunities to slip up and give away transition opportunities (which, as mentioned above, are a big part of Bellarmine’s offense).

Bellarmine is a little on the wrong side of the penalty differential, but they’re converting at about the same clip as opponents. Michigan’s EMO is really good and man-down is not. Look for the advantage in sheer numbers here, but not much difference between the teams other than that.

Big Picture

Michigan’s last first ECAC game of the year looks like an opportunity to get a win, though far from a guarantee. The computer gives the Wolverines about a 31% chance of taking home their first-ever conference victory. Any conference win would also give U-M a chance to make the ECAC Tournament for the first (and last) time.

Bellarmine might be the most vulnerable ECAC opponent on the schedule (Air Force is a little worse per the numbers, but they’ve also played a tougher schedule and just won a relatively uncompetitive game against Bellarmine). That makes it a capital-B capital-G big game for Michigan, though not one that it will be crushing to lose.

Predictions

Michigan has been hot-or-cold this year, mostly playing to the level of their competition (except in the Hopkins and Penn State games). Bellarmine might be right in that range – better than Michigan but not too much better – to draw out the Wolverines’ best.

• I think Brad Lott will struggle just a bit in this one (and then again on Tuesday) before returning to the form we expect of him. He’s going to be in his hometown – where he struggled last year – and the potential distraction of playing a bunch of his friends will take him a little while to get settled. Fortunately, in this game “struggle” means hitting the .500 mark.
• Michigan will do a better job on Bellarmine’s dangerous attack duo than they have against such pairs in the past, for a few reasons. One, they’re a bit settled in on the close D at this point, two, Bellarmine’s guys are more one-dimensional to a degree, and three, U-M is familiar with what Shanks brings.
• Michigan likes to play relatively fast, and so does Bellarmine. Because of BU’s preferred style of play, I actually think it behooves the Wolverines to slow things down a bit in this one. Avoiding mistakes in transition (and transition opportunities for Bellarmine) will make life pretty hard for the Knights.
• Michigan will shoot better than they have in recent games, partially because they aren’t facing an awesome goalie and partially because they’ve had an opportunity to decompress and get back to fundamentals with a normal week of practice spent in Ann Arbor (including a couple days of outdoor practice in Michigan Stadium).
• Gerald Logan’s absence in last year’s game wasn’t the difference (Dylan Westerhold allowed just one goal after the game was out of reach), but it might be in this one. Robbie Zonino is rounding into form, but an exceptional ball-stopper like Logan is important when the two teams are otherwise pretty close.

If Michigan can slow Bellarmine down, they stand a better chance to win this game, but I think the Knights’ defensive players are good enough to force a bit of action out of Michigan (some of which will be positive, some negative). With Michigan having a slight advantage on draws and Bellarmine in the other possession factors, the teams should be even there, and a slightly better efficiency out of Bellarmine sees Michigan fall to Bellarmine, 11-9.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.