Detroit Fall Ball Preview: Denison

Fall Ball Scrimmage

Fear the Big Red!

Saturday, October 22nd
Granville, OH

The Titans take on their only external opposition of the fall in a pair of scrimmages on Saturday. Up first, the host Denison Big Red.

The Big Red are a Division-3 team that finished 14th in LaxPower’s computer ratings at the conclusion of last season. They lost to RIT in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to finish with an 11-4 record.

Tempo-Free

From their official 2011 statistics, let’s take a look at Denison.

As you can see, Denison dominated a lot of games. Their clear percentage was much better, and they were ruthlessly efficient at times. On paper, this looks like a really really good team.

HOWEVA, there is definitely a strength-of-schedule argument to be made here. The Big Red played a bunch of really weak teams, running the likes of Otterbein and Oberlin (#122 and #117, respectively, to LaxPower’s computers) off the field, while getting smoked by Stevenson.

When they played good teams, the games were competitive. When they played poor teams – which was the case all-too often – Denison got easy wins.

Personnel

Faceoffs – By the end of the year, Denison had settled on Chip Phillips, now a sophomore, as they primary faceoff guy. He finished below .500 – like everyone else on Denison’s roster. Everyone else who took more than a handful of faceoffs also returns, so a small amount (though likely insignificant, if the trend is the same across divisions) could be expected.

Scoring Threats – Denison had a very experienced scoring unit last year, and despite graduating three of the top four scorers, it should be positively grizzled in 2012. Tanner Smith, now a senior, led the team in scoring last year, primarily racking up assists. The next three scorers all depart, and they appeared to be mostly finishers. However, the next five scorers (everyone else who had double-digit points) all return, and four of them are seniors. Midfielder Davis Lukens had 18 goals and 9 assists last year, and Zach Walsh seems like a dedicated finisher.

Defensive Field Players – Tommy Harrison led the defensive unit in ground balls last year as a freshman, and was second in caused turnovers to sophomore Spencer Riehl. Nick Farrell, now a senior, should join them on the top defensive unit, though LSM Colin Ryan graduated and will need to be replaced.

Goalies – A trio of returners highlights the goalkeeping corps. Junior Nick Petracca was the top guy ahead of senior Gregg Shannon last year, and had much better stats. He saved .588 of shots faced, and allowed fewer than 6 goals per game.

The Lowdown

As meaningless as fall ball scrimmages generally are, cross-divisional games mean less. Whereas Michigan’s three scrimmages gave them a chance to see where they stack up against their fellow Division-1 teams (verdict: eh, check back later), this will simply give Detroit a chance to get on the field against someone other than their own teammates.

We should get a few interesting tidbits, of course. Will the faceoffs be improved for Detroit? If they struggle against a mediocre D-3 team, it could mean trouble. How will the offense share the ball with Joel Matthews returning to the roster?

It should be more of a chance to run their schemes in a competitive, game-like environment, and get out on the field. However, I’m compelled to give a prediction, and I think (assuming regulation conditions, which is unlikely) Detroit comes away with a 14-4 win.