Detroit Preview: Ohio State

Not much has changed in Newark in the two weeks since I took a look at their team the first time around, but let’s take a closer look at tomorrow’s opponent for the Titans.

Brutus: Now featuring lacrosse stick

Ohio State

7 p.m. Feb. 9, 2012
Columbus, Ohio
Streaming video (for a fee)
Gametracker stats

2011
8-8 (3-3 ECAC). #23 LaxPower.
Lost to Denver in ECAC Conference semifinals (4-11).
Defeated Detroit 4-3 on Feb. 10.

Tempo-Free Profile

This is a team that was middle-of-the-packe in just about everything. Their two exception areas were defensive efficiency (No. 9 nationally) and clearing (No. 15 nationally). Everything else was within a couple positions of the national median.

Offense

Attackman Logan Schuss was the team’s leading scorer last year as a sophomore, and the 6-0, 210-pound Canadian will look to repeat the feat in 2012. He had 32 goals and 20 assists in 2011, for a total of 52 points.

Fellow attackman Jeff Tundo was second on the team in scoring (23 goals and 12 assists for 35 points), despite missing three games due to suspension. He left the Buckeyes following the year, and is now at Stony Brook.

Despite the loss of Tundo, the OSU offense shouldn’t suffer too much. The third- and fourth-leading scorers, attack Tyler Frederick and midfielder Dominique Alexander, both return. Offensive midfielder Michael Italiano is also back, and midfielder Jarred Bowman is the only other significant (8G, 3A) loss from last year’s offense.

With a year more seasoning, the Buckeyes’ offense should be able to improve. The loss of Tundo, however, could be significant. He was the most efficient shooter on last year’s squad, and would have had even more scoring output but for the suspension. Said suspension came about as a result of a hazing allegation, so there could be weird chemistry effects on the Buckeyes if all is not resolved adequately.

Defense

The Buckeyes’ defense was rather good last year. They allowed just .239 goals per possession (adjusted for strength of schedule), good for a top-ten finish in the nation. Some of the key players from that defense return, as well.

Keenan Ochwat led the squad in caused turnovers last season with 28, and started all but one game. His fellow rising senior Joe Bonnani started every single game, as did fifth-year Matt Kawamoto. This is a grizzled unit. Joe Meurer, now a sophomore, was third on the team in non-faceoff specialists as far as ground balls go. The OSU roster doesn’t distinguish between close defensmen and LSMs, so I imagine some combination of those four is your longpole unit.

In goal, Greg Dutton started every game of his freshman year, and played all but an hour and a half of the season between the pipes (both backups, Ryan Brant and Ryan Keneally are no longer on the team). Dutton saved .516 of shots faced, and allowed 8.35 goals per game.

The key players from a very god defense seem to return intact, and scoring on the Buckeyes will be no easy feat this year. Detroit only put up three goals on OSU in 2011, and they’ll have to hope that their offense has improved from last year (one game of evidence against Delaware didn’t tell us much).

Special Teams

The Buckeyes hovered around .500 at the faceoff X for most of last season, and finished just below it at .484. If Detroit is looking to rebound from a horrific performance in Delaware, they should have an opportunity to do it tonight. The teams played to a draw on faceoffs in last year’s game (Ohio State won 6 of 11).

Both of last year’s primary faceoff specialists – Shawn Kaplan and Trey Wilkes – are back in 2012. Kaplan had more success in 2011, winning .519 of his attempts (of which there were many more than for Wilkes) and Wilkes won .495. A handful of other Buckeyes tried their hand a few times, mostly without much success.

Kaplan went the distance against UDM last year, as did Brandon Davenport for the Titans. If Detroit wants to have a similarly-close outcome, success at X is important.

In the ride/clear game, Ohio State was only OK at preventing opponents from advancing to the offensive area, but they were stellar at clearing the bal themselves. With a defense that returns intact, expect more of the same in 2012.

The Buckeyes committed and accepted an almost identical number of penalties in 2011, and had exactly equal numbers on the man-up. Both Ohio State and their opponents scored 13 times in 50 attempts. Detroit’s aggressive style didn’t harm the Titans against OSU last year, and shouldn’t this season either, unless the Delaware game is a sign that they’re playing too aggressively in 2012.

Big Picture

The Titans are looking to rebound from a tough loss in the road opener in which they held their own, except in the third quarter of DOOM. They are already game-tested in a competitive environment this season, and as long as their confidence isn’t shaken, that is a major benefit.

This is also a revenge game for Detroit. They were thisclose to pulling off the upset in the Woody Hayes Athletic Complex last year, and will want to finish the deed this season. A marquee non-conference win could provide them with the confidence they need to have the best season in program history.

The problem with that, of course, is that the Buckeyes look like a much better team this year than they were in 2011. They’re also less likely to underestimate the Titans, after last year’s nail-biter. That adds up to a much tougher contest.

Predictions

Unlike the Delaware game, in which I thought that the score would be closer than expected (oops), I think the Titans are going to perform slightly worse than expectations tonight. They are down after a non-competitive loss on Saturday, they are playing their second of three games in eight days, and have a very winnable contest (look-ahead game anyone?) in the home opener on Sunday.

Ohio State looks like a better team than last year – but then again, so do the Titans. I think the external factors (the “intangibles”) favor the Buckeyes, and that will lead to a tough time in Columbus.

• The offense will do a better job capitalizing on opportunities than they did on Saturday. Now that the first-game jitters are out of the way, you won’t see as many dropped passes or missed connections. The Titans will also do a better job playing physically but within the rules.
• Detroit will, at some point, have a multi-goal lead on Ohio State. The Titans will be the more settled team, and although faceoffs might be a question mark, they should be able to put a few in the net before the Buckeyes are comfortable playing at 100% competitive fire.
• That said, Ohio State will take a lead by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, and not relinquish it. They simply look like a team that is ready to compete nationally. They likely won’t make the tournament over Denver out of the ECAC, but they are a top-20 team for a good reason.

This won’t be a heartbreaker for Detroit, and I doubt even a loss will have a detrimental effect on their early-season progress. Though some may not want to admit it, the Michigan game on Sunday seems to carry more of an emotional charge at this point, and has a darker circle around it on the calendar. The Buckeyes will manage 9-6 win in a game that’s not nearly as slow as last year’s contest.