Michigan Preview: Penn State

Since we’re stil in the early stages of the season, the preseason look should be an accurate snapshot of what we know about the Nittany Lions. For more detail, you’ve come to the right place…

We want the Lion!

Penn State

1:00 p.m. Feb. 18, 2012
University Park, Pa.
Gametracker stats

2011
7-7 (4-2 CAA). #26 LaxPower.
Lost to UMass in CAA Tournament (9-10 OT)

2012
0-1 (Lost to UNC 10-14)

Tempo-Free Profile

This has not changed since a couple weeks ago, but we soldier on.

What jumps out? PSU was slow as all get-out last year, fifth-slowest in the country. Hopefully a 74-possession game against North Carolina (also a slow team last year) indicates that they won’t be quite so, well, boring this year.

Aside from speed, the Nittany Lions were an average offense, slightly above-average defense, and just below average in possession percentage. That indicates a defensive scheme predicated on preventing good looks (i.e. zone), implemented to good effect.

Everything they did last year was under a first-year head coach (albeit an excellent one in Jeff Tambroni), so some improvement all around would come as no surprise.

Offense

Penn State was a relatively young team last year, and their top four scorers all return. Senior attacks Matt Mackrides (a Tewaaraton watchlister) and Jack Forster put up 30 and 15 points in 2011, respectively, while Shane Sturgis enters his sophomore year after a freshman campaign that saw him score 18 goals and assist on 16, to lead the team in overall scoring. He was the most balanced of the trio, while the other two were very goal-heavy (Forster had one assist all year).

In the midfield, junior Brother Rice product Nick Dolik is the headliner, along with his classmate Kyle Vanthof. They put up 13 and 15 points last year, with Dolik’s primarily in goals and Vanthof’s more evenly spread. Fantastically-named sophomore Tom Lacrosse (!!) is another key goal scorer.

Another Brother Rice product, faceoff specialist Danny Henneghan, scored six goals and had one assist last season.

Colton Vosburgh is the only key loss from the offense, taking his 12 points – tied for sixth on the team – with him.

Defense

Bill Davis and Matt Bernier started every game defensively for the Nittany Lions last year. Both are out the door, so expecting a regression from the defense is fair. The other starting spot was manned by a combination of freshman Steven Bogert and Ryne Sternberg. Although neither started against Carolina, both will probably draw into the starting lineup in 2012 at some point this season. Senior Ryan McGarvey only played in nine games last year (it seems like he was injured, since he started all nine), and should get the other starting nod. Sophomore Kessler Brown and freshmen Jack Donnelly and J.P. Burnside started the season opener (obviously one of those guys was the LSM, I believe Donnelly).

In the defensive midfield, Matt Brown has graduated, but Ryan Link will be back for his senior season. When the school doesn’t specify on the roster, it’s so tough to determine midfield roles from just the stats, so your guess is as good as mine about who will draw into the starting lineup.

Goalie Austin Kaut was a freshman last year, but he had such good numbers that expecting improvement is unfair (unless a PSU zone defense really inflates his numbers by limiting close-range finishes). He saved .635 of shots faced, and allowed only 7.90 goals per game. Despite that, he only went 7-7, so make of the rest of Penn State’s team what you will. He’s on the Tewaaraton watchlist, so his skills have received national attention already.

Special Teams

I already mentioned Henneghan in the offensive portion of our preview, but his primary role is faceoff specialist. He won a respectable .523 of draws last year, and will be a good test to see if Michigan’s Brian Greiner simply had a bad day against Detroit, or will not be an asset on faceoffs at the college level.

Penn State was below average in both riding and clearing last year, which cost them a number of possessions. They actually finished below .500 in possession percentage, despite a pretty good faceoff unit. The second year of a head coaching tenure – along with plenty of returning starters from the offense – leads me to believe the ride will be a little stronger. It’s possible that the Nittany Lions simply won’t emphasize it, but especially against Michigan, that’s a dumb move. On the clear… a pretty inexperienced defense may struggle at times, though an upgrade in goalkeeper experience is a nice boost.

Penn State committed more penalties that opponents last year, but some of those (especially considering that plenty of them were by offensive players) should be reduced by more experience. Defenseman Bill Davis accounted for 20% of Nittany Lions penalties by his lonesome, so perhaps a cleaner defenseman will replace him.

As for what happens once those penalties are committed, the Penn State man-down was terrible in comparison to their man-up. Opponents converted .288 of their opportunities, while PSU scored only .226 of the time. Losing most of your experienced players on defense is not a recipe for improvement, either.

Big Picture

Jeff Tambroni was a “big splash” hire when Penn State picked him up, and he had a good run of success at Cornell. It’s fair to assume that with a season of experience in State College/university Park under his belt, he should have his team more capable of doing the things he wants them to do.

The depth of experience on offense is impressive, and spells improvement from just average on that side of the ball. The defense loses too much for me to comfortably say they’ll do anything but backslide slightly from last year (North Carolina’s .326 performance in the opener speaks to that – although the offensive star power on Carolina’s team will probably do that to a lot of defenses this spring).

The games will be won or lost, in my estimation, based upon improvement (or lack thereof) in the transition game. Against a very inexperienced team like Michigan, they should see plenty of success. Michigan rode Detroit well, but the same could be said of the Titans against Michigan (when they weren’t foolishly abandoning the ride). Penn State should run up a possession advantage, and do enough on both sides of the ball in this game.

Predictions

As mentioned above, I don’t think Michigan is winning this game. However, ,it is absolutely a good opportunity to test themselves against a high-quality team that is not likely to blow their doors off (unless the battle on faceoffs gets ugly).

When Michigan gets offensive possessions, they should be able to generate looks, but the key will be maintaining those possessions and preventing Penn State from capitalizing on their own opportunities.

• A very experienced offense against very inexperienced (and possibly not fully healthy) goalkeeping is a scary thought. Penn State will score at least a couple goals that don’t seem like they should have gone in.
• Players from Michigan – that includes several of Michigan’s guys, along with Nittany Lions Dolik and Henneghan – will combine for eight goals. Henneghan’s performance on the faceoffs will also be impressive.
• Michigan’s offense will look much better against Penn State than it did against Detroit. A lower-pressure scheme will be easier on their lack of experience with Division-1 stick skills, and the turnover numbers will drop.

Nobody – including me – is expecting Michigan to have a chance to win this game at the end of the day. I do, however, think that Penn State, with their slow pace and unproven (though experienced) offense and inexperienced (though proven) defense is a game that they’ll be able to keep close. Penn State earns the 15-11 victory.