Michigan Preview: Air Force

A rough outing this afternoon, but the weekend can still be salvaged.

Denver

Is the bird part of the lightning or being struck by it?

11:00 a.m. MST Feb. 26, 2012
Denver, Colo.
Gametracker stats

2011
6-7 (3-3 ECAC). #42 LaxPower.
Did not make ECAC Championships.

2012
0-2 (Lost to Rutgers and Robert Morris)

Tempo-Free Profile

This is the final preview (fingers crossed) using last year’s numbers.

The differences in offensive and defensive efficiency – with the exact same number of possessions – show that a couple goals can make a big difference. Obviously that means there’s plenty of noise.

The Falcons were mediocre in just about everything. The only thing that stands out is poor offensive efficiency.

Offense

The Falcons’ No. 1, 4, 5, and 8 leading scorers from last season are gone among double-digit point-earners.

The leading returning scorer is sophomore midfielder Erik Smith, who had 13 goals and 16 assists last season. Attack Mike Crampton wasn’t far behind with 16 and 8. Holt product Tommy McKee, a 5-9 sophomore attack, had 25 points last year, almost all on finishes.

As mentioned above, the Air Force offense wasn’t particularly good last year anyway, so their losses should mean trouble. Then again, they’re at .343 efficiency through two games this year, so who knows. Admittedly, those teams (Rutgers and Robert Morris) weren’t great last year, but do we have any reason to believe Michigan is much better?

Defense

Two of last year’s regular starters in the defensive corps return in the forms of Dayton Gilbreath and Matt Puleo. The third regular starter, the spectacularly-named Benson Oldmixon, is gone, and freshman Davis Gunter (replacing one all-namer with another, I see) has started both game sin his stead.

Brian Wilson started every game between the pipes last year, and now that he’s gone, Austin Fox (who was also his backup last season) is the starter. He’s saving .429 of shots faced and allowing 14 goals a game through two contests this year.

The defense has been bad this year, allowing .337 goals per possession. That’s a step down from last year’s decent .263 mark, so the downgrade in goaltending (or random chance, or strength of schedule, or…) could be a factor.

Special Teams

Erik Smith was the prime faceoff guy last year, and he’s reprising the role in 2012. He won .525 of his draws in 2011, but is under .500 so far this year. Michigan’s Brian Greiner is playing well, but is going to need better wing play than he got today if he’s going to build up any sort of gaudy statistics.

Air Force was slightly above average on both the ride and the clear last year, and with only a bit of personnel turnover (and facing a turnover-prone goalie) that should hold true in this contest as well. Michigan worked a few things on the clear that had great success, and more discipline going forward should see them round into form.

Shocker of the century: a service academy didn’t commit many penalties last year, earning the distinction of “disciplined.” Confirmed stereotypes aside, Air Force was bad at converting on man-up opportunities, and middle-of the pack in preventing opponents from doing the same.

Big Picture

It goes without saying that the weaker opponents on Michigan’s schedule are going to provide the only options for wins in the inaugural varsity season. Air Force is one of those squads.

The Falcons don’t have the athletes to run Michigan off the field like Denver did, and their stick skills, according to some who have seen them play this year, are nothing to write home about. This will be the first game in which Michigan can match up man-for-man. Playing their own game and staying composed will be the keys to victory.

Unlike Air Force, Michigan’s club roster is used to playing on back-to-back days (as John Paul acknowledged to me today), and that will help in the stamina department.

Predictions

I’m having a tough time – perhaps this is my (over-)optimism shining through – predicting anything short of a Michigan win. Air Force’s defense has been pitiful through a couple games, and they won’t out-man Michigan.

• Trevor Yealy makes up for his lack of impact today with three points against Air Force.
• Brian Greiner will again perform well on faceoffs, but wing play will diminish his win percentage, keeping it right around (probably just below) .500.
• Michigan will employ aggressive rides against Air Force, and that – along with a composed clearing game – will help them do better in the transition game than Air Force.

Will he do it will he do it? Yes, I will. I think Michigan wins their first game of the year, as the Wolverines defeat Air Force 11-10.