Detroit Preview: Manhattan

Detroit looks to maintain its perfect record in MAAC play and put together the first four-game win streak in program history when they travel to the Big Apple to take on Manhattan tomorrow.

Manhattan

What is a Jasper?

1:00 p.m. March 31, 2012
Gaelic Park, Riverdale, N.Y.
Live stats. Live video ($).
Side rant: I will never figure out these small schools that charge people to watch their live events. You have no brand. People aren’t going to pay for that. Grow your brand by making the video free (or at least reasonably-priced).
Previously on GLS: Detroit 13, Manhattan 7.

2012
3-5 (Wins over Providence, Mercer, and Binghamton). #56 Laxpower.

Tempo-Free Profile

Despite a mediocre record, the Jaspers are right near the bottom of the stack in the LaxPower ratings (thanks to awful competition). Let’s see what they’re like on the field:

Manhattan is mostly holding their own in the possession game. They aren’t exactly covering themselves in glory on faceoffs (.472) or in transition (they clear at .764, while opponents clear at .877), but they’re doing well enough there to not face a serious deficit in possessions.

It’s what they do with those possessions that has been a big problem. They are horrifically inefficient – even Michigan, which is pretty bad, has only had ONE game all season with as poor an offensive efficiency as Manhattan’s season average, and they’ve done that against much tougher competition.

Defensively, they are pretty poor as well, but not nearly as bad as they are on offense. Still, that mark is bottom 15-ish in the country.

Offense

The Jaspers are only averaging six and a quarter goals per game, so it should come as no surprise that they don’t have a lot of offensive standouts. All told, four guys have double-digit points so far this season.

Junior attack Brian McGrath leads the way with 11 goals and four assists for 15 total points. Senior midfielder Brendan Rogers isn’t far behind with 12 points, though the majority of his scoring has come by way of his nine assists. The next two leaders are tied at 11 points. Senior midfielder Jonathan Bourne has eight goals (second on the team) and three assists, but attack Matt Thistle may be the most talented guy on the team.

The miniature freshman has put every ounce of his 5-6, 135-pound body into scoring five goals and adding six assists – in just four of the Jaspers’ games. He got two goals and four assists against Princeton, of all teams, but hasn’t played in recent weeks, and is possibly still out injured (Manhattan College is not the Last Great Sports Information Department, is appears).

When the Jaspers do score, they assist on most of their goals. This means team play is one of their strengths, so Detroit’s aggressive style is going to open things up once or twice. But only once or twice.

Defense

Senior midfielder Mike Brooks is the leader of the close defense. He has seven caused turnovers on the year to lead the team by a wide margin – for comparison’s sake, that would put him in a tie for fifth on Detroit’s team – and has started every game. His classmate Steve Harvey (one must presume not that Steve Harvey) and junior Jeff Mohr have started just about every game for the Jaspers.

The top defensive midfielder is Alex Grandal, who leads the team in ground balls despite not taking faceoffs (presumably, he’s one of the wings on faceoffs). He’s only taken four shots all year and is not much of an offensive threat. Sophomore Sean McMahon is the primary LSM, from appearances, but the stats get muddled in there.

Between the pipes, Manhattan is the first team I’ve previewed all year that has seen significant time for multiple goaltenders. Sophomore Rich Akapnitis is in a rotation with Wiatrak, with each taking a turn as the starting keeper – and going the distance in each start. Akapnitis has played in five games, but has worse numbers (caution: that’s most likely a product of Mercer being one of Wiatrak’s opponents).

Both keepers appear, from the stats alone, to be equally talented, and aside from Wiatrak earning the opportunity to have Mercer lob shots into his chest, there hasn’t been any pattern in terms of which one plays. The only thing we know for sure is that the starter will go the distance, if precedent is any value to us.

Special Teams

On faceoffs, freshman Brian Lenskold has been the primary option, winning .478 of his draws, and doing so while picking up very very few GBs. He’s the type of faceoff man who will pop it to his wings, or occupy the opposing FOGO, rather than trying to win it himself. Junior Jonathan Crean has sen his action on faceoffs drop to just about zilch over the course of the season, but he’s an option if Lenskold struggles. He wins .462 of his draws (in a limited sample size).

The ride for Manhattan is awful, allowing opponents to approach a .900 success rate. Avoiding the dumb turnover is the key here, because the Jaspers aren’t going to force a whole lot. Their clear is just OK as well, so some pressure could create opportunities, including some in transition.

The Manhattan EMO isn’t particularly good, so Detroit’s penalty-prone nature probably should be a problem.

Big Picture

Every game in the MAAC is a big one, but that doesn’t mean every one is possible to lose. That appears to be the case in this one, as Manhattan is truly struggling, and the Titans are on a roll. No game is a cakewalk for a program that is just learning to play as the favorites, but it doesn’t seem like there’s much risk in this one.

Detroit Site Preview.

Predictions

It shouldn’t come as no surprise, given the above, that I think the Titans win this one. How about some specific predictions, though?

• Although they’ve struggled on faceoffs in the past couple years, I have the feeling Detroit will do well in this game. They have talented wing players, and with a faceoff specialist who isn’t going to win many himself, wing play is the key. I think over .600 on the day for UDM.
• Joel Matthews continues his offensive run. Although he didn’t have a huge day statistically against Marist, he certainly had the highlight with a diving score in overtime. Manhattan’s defense is pretty bad though, and other players will have plenty of opportunity to get involved. I think Shayne Adams will have the chance to ramp his scoring back up in preparation for Siena next weekend.
• A.J. Levell has a stellar day between the pipes (and it’s possible that one of the backups, if available, sees a quarter of action). Despite assisting on most of their goals – which indicates strong team offense – the Jaspers only put 39% of their shots on cage past the keeper. They don’t exactly paint the corners.
• Detroit will have at least one player – most likely Jordan Houtby – with as many caused turnovers as Manhattan’s whole team.
• The only way this game is close is if Detroit is playing man-down practically the entire time. They’ll commit a dumb penalty or two, no doubt, but not that many.

So, uh, yeah. I think this game is going to go well for the Titans. Manhattan has been shut out twice this year – that’s unbelievably bad (I can’t recall seeing a Division-1 game end in a shutout, though it certainly happens at least a few times a season). Manhattan doesn’t exactly do anything well, and there is a lot of the game that they’re actively bad at. Detroit cruises to a 12-5 win.