Michigan Schedule Projection: July 10

It’s been a loooong time since I’ve tried to hazard a guess at Michigan’s inaugural varsity schedule, but after yesterday’s news that the Wolverines have been accepted into the ECAC and will play a partial conference schedule next season, it’s time to repeat the deed.

The semi-relevant portions from last time around:

Assuming no other changes to the league’s membership (not a guarantee), that means games against the following teams:

• Denver
• Loyola (Maryland)
• Ohio State
• Fairfield
• Air Force
• Hobart
• Bellarmine

We now know to only expect a partial league schedule. A source confirmed an earlier report to me that the current plan is indeed to play Ohio State in The Big House on April 14th before the spring game.

If I was a betting man, I’d also guess a a road swing to Denver (for the Pioneers and Air Force) or the Northeast (to take on Fairfield and Hobart), while not playing the other pair unless they can fit it in – not imperative since Michigan is not eligible for the 2012 ECAC Tournament. Since Denver/Air Force is the higher-profile set of matchups, I’m guessing a trip out there. Bill Tierney’s comments earlier this year seem to confirm that. Depending on how many ECAC matchups are in the cards, Loyola and Bellarmine games should also be included, and Fairfield/Hobart if those can fit in.

Moving along to the non-conference portion, here’s what I guessed back in May:

Some likely opponents include:

• Johns Hopkins (past scrimmage opponent, JP has an existing relationship with Dave Pietramala)
• Army (past scrimmage opponent)
• Navy (rumorz!)
• Penn State (Big Ten foe)
• Notre Dame (traditional rival)
• Detroit (geography)
• Bad teams (some bros gotta win, right?)

AnnArbor.com’s Mike Rothstein has been hitting his sources hard, and they tell him that Michigan will be playing the Irish and Nittany Lions in year one, but Pietramala himself says that Michigan and Hopkins will not square off in 2012 (2013 and 2014 are likely, though), no idea whether that has any effect on 412′s Navy rumor being a first-year thing.

A source indicates to me that the Navy contest is more likely to be a scrimmage, so cross that one off. I would also be shocked if the Wolverines didn’t play both Notre Dame and Penn State. Detroit is one tier below “shocked,” but I’m also expecting to see the Titans on the 2012 slate. That means we need to fill in some bad teams – likely from the MAAC – and some high-profile opponents to fill out the schedule.

Since Michigan will not be eligible for the ECAC Tournament in year 1, look for a high-profile opponent that weekend. Since the ACC has fewer teams, and a tournament in name only, Michigan will probably play a squad from that conference on the weekend of the ECAC. They’ll still fill in another 1-2 dates with decent-to-great competition.

As for low-range opponents, Mercer will probably be on the schedule, as they’re the closest thing to an auto-win. That still leaves some questions:

• Where will the game take place?
• Will the date be packaged with another game over the weekend?

If the theoretical Denver trip doesn’t take place over Spring Break (according to the academic calendar, February 25th through March 4th), a road trip to a warm-weather locale – meaning either Jacksonville or a tougher test in ACC territory – could be in the cards as well.

So, what do we know now? Unfortunately, only a little bit more than we did a month and a half ago. It’s unlikely that Michigan plays all seven ECAC teams, and they will probably play an away game the weekend of the ECAC tournament.

Until more concrete news comes out, it’s still all (educated) guesswork.