Michigan Preview: Colgate

So Michigan is playing well in the most recent stretch of games, but the team’s biggest weakness has been facing an exceptional attackman. Good thing they’re not facing the reigning Tewaaraton winner today…

Colgate

Both flag and torch double as lacrosse sticks. Illegal equipment flag is down.

3:00 p.m. EST – ESPNU
March 17, 2013
Flushing, NY (Citi Field)
Colgate tailgate information(!). Pregame notes.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.
Live stats.
Airs on ESPNU, also streaming on ESPN3.com.
Part of the Metropolitan Lacrosse Classic, hosted by the New York Mets. The second game of a double-header (Navy and Holy Cross play at noon).

Tempo-Free Profile

With TempoFreeLax.com fully up to date, the numbers shown here are adjusted for the strength of schedule (Marist has played the nation’s No. 27 toughest schedule to date).

Colgate plays a pretty fast brand of lacrosse – good for T.V. – and edges just ahead of opponents in terms of the proportion of those possessions. That means a lot of Raider possessions in games.

That gives a high-powered Colgate offense plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the back of the net (doesn’t hurt that they take .644 shots per possession). The offense has taken a distinct step back from last year’s ridiculous output, but it’s still pretty good (and talented). The defense has also taken a slight step back, but not quite as pronounced. All told, this has been a fringe top-20 team to date.

Let’s take a closer look at the personnel and what makes this team go.

Offense

Hey have you heard of Peter Baum? Oh, OK. He had unreal offensive numbers last year, scoring a goal on more than one out of every ten Raider possessions and assisting on five percent of them. That means he had a hand in scoring on nearly 15% of Colgate possessions, and the team as a whole scored on about 36% of them. That’s good.

The senior attackman’s numbers aren’t nearly as good this year, accompanied by a general slide for the whole offense. Sophomore Ryan Walsh has stepped up to rival Baum’s production to date, however, with 17 goals and four assists to Baum’s 20 and nine. He’s also huge for an attackman, standing 6-4, 238.

Sophomore midfielder Matt Clarkson has eight goals and eight assists, while a pair of juniors – midfielder Jimmy Ryan and attackman Brendon McCann – have identical nine goal, four assist outputs.

The “single great attackman” offense has been a killer for Michigan this year, and facing one of the country’s best sure isn’t their dream matchup. Even if the Wolverines manage to somehow slow down Baum, that will likely open things up for McCann. There are a lot of options here, despite the offense not being exceptional this year.

Defense

Like the offense, the defense hasn’t lived up to last year’s high marks. However, it’s still a pretty good unit. Juniors Bobby Lawrence and Kevin Boyle lead non-faceoff specialists in caused turnovers and ground balls (Boyle is listed as a defenseman but has not starts – he’s likely your LSM).

Senior James Queeney and sophomore Matt Yeager have started every game along with Lawrence, but haven’t put up big GB numbers to date. Lawrence and Boyle are clearly the dangermen on the defensive unit.

The goalkeeping situation has been split between junior Conor Murphy and freshman Gordon Santry. Santry has more starts (four to three) and a little bit more time between the pipes, but Murphy has earned the starting position after Santry started the year. He has a significantly better goals against average (7.92 to 11.84) and save percentage (.508 to .418), though neither has been exceptional in any respect.

Special Teams

Faceoffs are a slight advantage for the Raiders – at 52.05%, they’re No. 25 in the country. Sophomore Alex Kinnealy is 1/9 in the only duty taken by a player other than senior Robert Grabher (“Her” here meaning the clamp on a faceoff, clearly). Grabher is at .540 on the year, and has .724 as many ground balls as he does wins – he picks them up himself quite a bit (it doesn’t appear from this other stats that he’s a significant O- or D-middie) in other phases of the game). He’s a weapon for the Raiders.

Colgate is just above-average in the clearing game, and against a team like Michigan that is middle-of-the-road in riding (after being a hard-riding team last year, they’ve switched it up to prevent transition opportunities), so expect standard results there. On the other end, Colgate is one of the hardest-riding teams in the country this year (No.9). Michigan – after starting the year very well on the clear – has slid back to No. 50 in the country. They’ve gone in fits and starts – other than brutal performances against Army and High Point, things haven’t been bad – so expecting any sort of consistency is a little premature.

Colgate takes a lot of penalties in comparison to opponents, the opposite of Michigan (though a couple rough games have brought things closer to even), and doesn’t convert nearly as well as opponents, despite the offensive talent on the roster. At this point, it’s fair to expect EMOs – both in sheer volume and conversion – to favor Michigan against most teams.

Big Picture

Michigan’s second big nationally televised is an opportunity to represent the brand to world, and like the Hopkins game, I think the Wolverines will do a little better than expected. “Expected,” however, is a pretty rough outing, so we’ll see just how close U-M can keep things.

This probably isn’t one of the winnable contests left on the schedule, but it’s also one in which the Wolverines can prevent themselves from being blown out by slowing things down and making Colgate’s offense – again, not nearly the unit it was last year – earn what it gets.

Predictions

Whether Michigan will actually be able to slow things down might be the biggest question…

• I don’t think it’s happening, though. One way to speed up pace? Convert a lot of goals. Colgate has the type of personnel – one exceptional attackman and a good enough supporting cast – that can really make Michigan pay. Expect Michigan’s fastest game of the year (previously 77 against Hopkins).
• Peter Baum hasn’t been as ridiculous as last year, but this game is an opportunity for him to do a whole lot of scoring. Five-plus goals and a couple assists should be a nice day at the office for him.
• Brad Lott (or Charlie Keady) should be able to stalemate Grabher on draws. He’s a big factor in pushing things on clean wins, so mucking things up in the middle and letting the wing players get around 40% of the GBs will be a good day. Beating him straight-up would be a surprise, but is possible, too.
• Gerald Logan – as has become the status quo – will steal a couple goals from Colgate, but will also have a tough task playing behind his defense. U-M’s back line should be healthiest they have been in a while, but they’ve still struggled most of the year.
• Michigan should get a couple EMO goals in this game. Colgate plays pretty rough, and the man-down defense isn’t great. That phase is one of Michigan’s few strengths, so expect them to capitalize.

I’ve stressed enough times that Colgate isn’t last year’s juggernaut, but the Raiders are still trotting out a really good team, so Michigan – while the Wolverines aren’t going to admit defeat before the contest – probably isn’t expecting to win. They won’t. Colgate takes it, 16-6.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.