Michigan and Detroit Preview: Mercer

Michigan tries to get up off the mat after a demoralizing loss to Penn State, while Detroit tries to unveil a (slightly) different program identity and begin 2014 with a bang. Both programs welcome Mercer to Southeast Michigan for indoor games.

Mercer

Fear the Bear!

@MercerLacrosse.
Mercer pre-trip notes.

Michigan
Feb. 14 2014. 7 p.m. EST
Oosterbaan Fieldhouse
Live stats
@UMichLacrosse. @GreatLaxState.
Michigan pregame notes. .pdf notes.

Detroit
Feb. 16, 2014. 2 p.m. EST
Ultimate Soccer Arenas Pontiac
Live Stats
@DetroitTitans. @GreatLaxState.
Detroit pregame notes. .pdf notes.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are adjusted for strength of schedule, and are obviously last year’s figures, given that Mercer has played all of one game (and against a first-year team) so far. The Bears played the No. 62 schedule – second-easiest in the nation – last season.

Last year was the Bears’ third at the Division-1 level, and they took a nice step forward getting to three wins (though part of that was strength of schedule, given that they beat the two worst teams in the country).

Mercer played an average pace, which you can expect out of a team with their standing in the nation: they probably want to slow things down to not get blown out, while opponents generally can score pretty quickly when they get the ball. That the Bears had a pretty good possession game helped them slow things down. That was mostly thanks to faceoff success, since their clear and ride were both bottom-13 or so nationally.

The offense was a struggle (like you’d expect from a relatively young program). They reached double-digit goals in all three wins, plus losses to Marquette, Manhattan, and High Point. They didn’t face a murderer’s row, so strength of competition definitely comes into account, and helps them get out of those national depths pre-adjustment.

The defense was really bad, however, and went against four of the worst seven offenses in the country (again, some of that lack of quality in their ranking is on account of the adjustment). There were only two games – a one-goal loss to Towson and the win over St. Joseph’s – where they didn’t allow the opposition to crack double-digits.

All told, it adds up to one of the lesser teams in the country, propped up by the ability to win faceoffs and possess the ball. That helped them slow down the game and keep scoring margins reasonable in some of the losses.

Offense

The positive to a young offense in 2013 is the return of almost all production in 2014. Midfielders Keoni Rausch (eighth on the team in scoring with three goals and four assists) and Tyler Schott (one goal), and attackmen Ian Gehlbach (two goals) and Jay DeBole (a goal and three assists) are the only departures from the offense. That’s 14 of 184 points on the year, so the important guys are back.

That includes all three starting attackmen. Chris Baxa led the way with 33 goals and 10 assists as a freshman, and Zack Ward and Cole Branch are seniors who scored 30 goals and five assists, and 15 goals and 11 assists, respectively.

Harry Baker, also a senior, was the top-scoring midfielder, though he put up just 10 goals and eight assists all year. Tim Geran wasn’t far behind with nine and six, and Eoin Collins had six himself while assisting on six more. Those three were scorers 4-6 down the roster, showing that this is an attack-oriented offense.

Ward (six goals) and Baxa (four goals and two assists) had six points apiece in the season-opener against Boston U, so the focus of the offense likely hasn’t changed. Geran had a goal and three assists, but the new name to watch is freshman James Tautkus, who had two goals and two assists. Three of his points came in the fourth quarter, so he could be more of a depth player in a competitive game.

Detroit’s defense is still a mystery at this point in the year, but for Michigan, high-output attackmen are a problem. That’s an issue from the last two seasons that seemed to persist against Penn State, and while none of these guys are on the TJ Sanders or Shane Sturgis level, they’ll definitely be dangerous.

Defense

Mike Nugent is the returning keeper after playing all but six minutes last year (backup Dillon Volk is no longer with the squad). Despite a somewhat bad overall defense, Nugent put up respectable save numbers, saving .533 of shots faced – and he faced a lot of them. He saved 10 of the 16 he faced last weekend against Boston, though the Terriers likely don’t have the firepower of either Michigan or Detroit.

Senior Michael Emerson and sophomore Matt Lucas started every game last year at close D,  though Emerson didn’t see game action against Boston U last week so his status is unclear. Tim Margiotta started four games as a freshman before getting injured and missing the rest of the year, so he’s back as a redshirt frosh. Junior Matt Campbell started in his stead during the second part of last season.

Senior Wilton McKown and sophomore JT Del Tufo should be the top options at short-stick defensive midfield, after being by far the most-used last year. Del Tufo was the only Bear with double-digit caused turnovers (not a focus of the defensive scheme, unsurprising with a pretty good goalie).

Without takeaway defenders, Mercer seems more focused on taking away good looks and that’s something Detroit, with plenty of offensive talent, should be able to crack. Michigan’s more of a question mark, but we’ll see how the young players on the roster allow for others (including fellow youngsters like sophomore middie Kyle Jackson and freshman attack Ian King) to create.

Special Teams

The faceoff game was the biggest advantage Mercer had last year. Now a junior, justin Evans won .561 of his draws, picking up many of the ground balls by himself. Backup Tyler Schott is gone, so if Evans isn’t working out, we’ll have to see a totally new player on draws. Both Michigan and Detroit have had their runs of success and struggle on faceoffs. Detroit has a number of options – for the first time in a while, they can mix things up and put another successful guy in on draws – and I think they should be able to battle Evans pretty even. If one guy isn’t working out, switching between Damien Hicks/Tyler Corcoran/Ryan Tarzia can make something work. Michigan has a couple options, but none of them other than Brad Lott have seen much success. There’s a chance the Wolverines battle Evans pretty even, but if things aren’t working out, focusing on the prevention of clean wins (and therefore fastbreak opportunities) will become the focus.

Mercer was a bad clearing team last year, hitting the .831 success rate, good for No. 52 nationally. That’s the expectation with a young squad, and given the big leap in experience this spring, it should get a bit better. Still, it’s something that both Michigan teams have a chance to exploit. Both have employed heavy riding off-and-on over time, and can pull it out of the playbook if needed. In the ride game, Mercer was No. 50 nationally. It’s unclear whether that’s a philosophical thing or their just not being very good. Detroit’s clear was really bad last year, and though Michigan’s was better, it still wasn’t great. Both teams should be able to have success.

Lucas, Campbell, and Del Tufo were the team leaders in committing penalties. That’s something to watch, given that Mercer played a pretty sloppy brand of lacrosse last year, with many more penalties than opponents. Their EMO was terrible, and the man-down defense wasn’t great, either. The Bears are going to want to clean up their game at all costs, because it can beat them to commit as many penalties as they did last year. They were really clean against Boston, but that comes with all the caveats of facing a first-year team. Michigan has traditionally been very clean while Detroit has been a little more penalty-prone. With a less aggressive defense expected from this edition of the Titans, look for both teams to have something of an advantage.

Big Picture

Both Michigan and Detroit should have the opportunity to succeed against a program that’s not yet established, and wasn’t very good last year. While Michigan will be coming off an emotional low of the Penn State game and Mercer is off the high of blowing out Boston University, the talent difference between these two teams should come into play. U-M does have more talent, even if the best players aren’t experienced yet.

For Detroit, this should be an opportunity to test-run a different focus. With the best defensive players from a year ago moving on and most of the offensive standouts returning, the aggressive takeaway defense won’t be needed as much. Protecting the goalie and allowing the offense to be possession-oriented (and preferably successful on those possessions) is the new look.

Both teams are looking at Mercer as one of the closest things to a sure win this season, and either of them losing to the Bears would be quite bad indeed.

Predictions

Starting with Michigan:

• The Wolverines seem to play better in Oosterbaan Fieldhouse, so the location is an advantage in that regard. Expect them to be as crisp as you’ll see them all season. The offensive execution is sharp, while other teams have trouble adjusting to the lighting, etc.
• Mercer has an edge on faceoffs regardless of whether Brad Lott plays, but it’s not a significant margin (and even closer if Lott is in). The fast break is in play once or twice though, thanks to a clean win from Evans.
• Michigan will see a player or two notch his first career point. That’s likely to be an assist from a faceoff man (or a goal or assist from redshirt freshman attack Brendan Gaughan), since the most likely options – Mikie Schlosser and Ian King – notched against Penn State.
• Mercer will have some openings on the inside from attackmen in what has become a very frustrating Michigan tradition. Either they’ll have to clean that up, Robbie Zonino will have to play a better game than he did against Penn State, or the scheme might have to get adjusted without Gerald Logan between the pipes.

I feel a fast-paced game coming on (not least of which because that probably benefits Michigan). The Wolverines run out to a 3-0 lead, and while Mercer has a couple medium-sized runs during the game, U-M is able to take it comfortably, 16-10.

As for Detroit:

• The identity change works out in this one. Detroit is able to get attackmen open on dodges, open shooting lanes for Mike Birney and other midfielders, and put together a very impressive offensive performance.
• The defense, on the other hand, will take some lumps early in the year. Over the past couple years, we’ve seen the Titans go away from the pressure defense, then snap back into it (successfully so) once a more passive scheme didn’t work out. Given the roster makeup of this squad, they should be able to stick with it longer, but they’ll have to adjust.
• This should be a game featuring a lot of EMOs – something that really benefits the Titans. Look for at least one bomb on the extra-man from Birney, and some solid scoring with the advantage.

Detroit’s program is far more stable, identity change or not. UDM is also used to playing in the friendly confines of Ultimate Soccer, and they can ride that comfort to an early lead before Mercer adjusts. Titans build a lead then ride it out, working through new offensive sets more than just trying to score all game. Detroit takes it by a 16-5 score.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.