Mini-previews: Michigan and Detroit v. Yale and Manhattan

Been out of commission all week, so no full previews (and recaps from last weekend’s games forthcoming… at some point). However, a little talk about today’s opponents for the Division-1 men.

Yale

The Elis are a borderline top-10 team, something that Michigan has either had shocking success dealing with (fellow Ivy squad Cornell, non-blowouts against Hopkins and Maryland), or struggled with more in line with what you’d expect. There has also been a tendency of this Michigan team to ride a wave, up one game, down the next. Last weekend’s game – or second half, at least – was a clunker, so you’d think they come out relatively hot today.

Yale is a very good faceoff and possession (plus-level clear, average ride) team. Michigan can either dominate faceoffs even against some of the best in the country, or come out dead flat and struggle against mediocre specialists. I expect a bounceback after two down weeks from Brad Lott. The mental side of the game is something he’ll continue to grasp with experience, and will allow him to be more consistent. For now, you hope for the “hot” side of the hot-and-cold pendulum.

Yale’s offense is actually below-average, but the Bulldogs have some weapons. Junior attack Conrad Oberbeck is a finisher with some ability to dish (23G-8A-31 points), senior linemate Brandon Mangan is balanced, and junior midfielder Shane Thornton is your primary feeder (7G-11A-18 points). The players behind them are all more skewed toward scoring than creating, with junior midfielder Colin Flaherty’s 10 goals and two assists making him the other scary finisher.

Junior Eric Natale has played almost every minute between the pipes, and while he’s saving about .540, much of the credit goes to his defense, which is really good overall and prevents teams from getting off many shots at all, much less good ones (the total volume of shots has been a limiting factor of the Yale offense, to even things up on the other end). Sophomore Michael Quinn and senior Jimmy Craft are the dangerous takeaway guys with 15 and 13 on the year, respectively.

Yale is too strong for Michigan, and even though the Wolverines should play above their heads (as they typically do against tough competition), the Bulldogs win 13-9.

Manhattan

The Jaspers are one of the worst teams in the country, and a Detroit team that is rounding into form (two overtime losses at home to the MAAC leaders stand between them and what would otherwise be a great push to end the spring) should be able to dispatch them pretty easily.

The problems for Manhattan start on faceoffs, where they’re in the bottom-5 nationally… just a couple spots behind Detroit (though the numbers aren’t adjusted for schedule strength there, so a grain of salt is necessary). That says to me that the Jaspers are bad not just with their specialist, but also on wing play. I like Detroit’s Damien Hicks when it comes to securing the clamp, but he and his wings have struggled to corral loose balls. Against a poor team like Manhattan, they should be able to take care of it just fine. Manhattan’s clear is dead last in the country, so Detroit should be able to take advantage there. Even though UDM’s clear is also bad, Manhattan’s ride is bottom-10 nationally, and that issue might not plague the Titans as much as usual.

The Manhattan defense is slightly less bad than the offense, and senior goalie Rich Akapnitis probably deserves most of the credit for that. He is saving shots at a .528 clip, despite playing behind… whatever that is. The Jaspers allow 0.76 shots per possession, one of the country’s worst marks. Senior Dan McGreevy and sophomore Alex Gitlitz, with their double-digit CTs, try to help Akapnitis out, but opponents are still able to put .600 of their shots on the cage.

The problem with the offense is related, in a way. The Jaspers actually put a greater percentage of their total shots on the cage, .604, but they can’t beat opposing keepers. That speaks to a lack of finding good looks as well as a simple inability to shoot hard enough or accurately enough to get it by the goalie. Against a strong – possible freshman All-American – talent like Jason Weber, look for a lot of shots on goal and not a whole lot of them to get by.

POW. Enjoy some lacrosse today, y’all.