Scores and Schedule: April 18, 2014

Vacation: over. Back to the #grind.

Monday’s Results

Division-3 Women

Kalamazoo 13, Defiance 9

High School Boys

Madison Heights Bishop Foley 12, Dearborn Divine Child 6
Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central 21, Detroit Southeastern 1
Plymouth 12, Flint Powers 3
Dexter 16, Grosse Ile 4
Davison 18, Saginaw Heritage 0
Northville 9, Novi 6
South Lyon 16, Salem 1
Waterford 9, Swartz Creek 5
Warren Cousino 11, Anchor Bay Fairview 2

High School Girls

Dexter 15, Temperance Bedford 4
Canton 12, Plymouth 4
East Lansing 11, DeWitt 7
Bloomfield Hills Marian 18, Grosse Pointe South 12
Livonia Ladywood 13, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 7
Farmington Hills Harrison 21, Flushing 9
South Lyon United 8, Northville 8 (3OT)
Midland Dow 18, Oxford 8
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 6, Rochester 6
Salem 11, Novi 9
Rochester Adams @ Clarkston
Warren Regina @ Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
Kalamazoo Central @ Tecumseh

Tuesday’s Results

Division-3 Men

Adrian 15, Olivet 5
Albion 20, Trine 3

Collegiate Club Men

Siena Heights 5, Indiana Tech 9
Aquinas 20, Ferris State 6

High School Boys

Lowell 11, Caledonia 8
Forest Hills Eastern 8, Spring Lake 7
Forest Hills Northern 14, East Grand Rapids 13 (2OT)
Forest Hills Central 16, Grand Haven 6
Holland Christian 13, Grand Rapids Christian 5
Portage Northern 14, Kalamazoo United 2
Grosse Pointe North 14, L’Anse Creuse North 4
Portage Central 10, Battle Creek Harper Creek 4
Holland West Ottawa 14, Rockford 9
Romeo 6, L’Anse Creuse 5
Dewitt @ East Lansing
Clarkston @ Farmington
Northview @ Grand Rapids Catholic Central
St. Clair United @ Lapeer West-East
Brother Rice @ Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
Utica Stevenson @ Port Huron United
Auburn Hills Avondale @ Rochester Adams
Warren Mott-Sterling Heights @ Utica
Anchor Bay Fairview @ Henry Ford II

High School Girls

Grand Haven 22, Holland West Ottawa 5
Holt 17, Grandville 4
Cranbrook-Kingswood 16, Farmington Hills Mercy 6
Okemos 16, Williamston-Haslett 1
Bloomfield Hills Marian @ Grosse Pointe North
Grand Blanc @ Midland Dow
Detroit Country Day @ Flint Powers
Grand Blanc @ Swartz Creek
Tecumseh @ Sylvania (Ohio) Northview
Waterford United @ Walled Lake United

Wednesday’s Results

Division-1 Women

Michigan 16, Detroit 6

Division-3 Women

Alma 14, Albion 9
Adrian 23, Hope 8
Olivet 12, St. Mary’s (Ind.) 9
Kalamazoo 19, Thrine 8

Collegiate Club Men

Grand Valley State 13, Davenport 12
Oakland 22, Northwood 4
Lawrence Tech 10, Michigan-Dearborn 6

High School Boys

Davison 13, Bay City Western 10
Madison Heights Bishop Foley 9, Royal Oak 8
Chelsea 9, Yspilanti Lincoln 6
Detroit Country Day 9, Brother 8 (OT) (!!!!!!)
Cranbrook 12, UD-Jesuit 9
Tecumseh 13, Dexter 4
Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central 7, Dearborn Divine Child 3
Battle Creek Pennfield 17, East Lansing 4
Midland 16, Grand Blanc 3
Spring Lake 9, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 6
Holland 13, Grand Rapids South Christian 2
Lansing Waverly 8, Grand Ledge 7
Troy Athens 10, Lake Orion 3
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 10, Rochester 6
Mattawan 6, Mishawaka (Ind.) 5 (OT)
South Lyon 6, Plymouth 3
Grosse Pointe University Liggett 13, Warren Cousino 6
Northville 19, Walled Lake Western 7
Okemos 14, Haslett-Williamston 8
Novi 15, Waterford 0
Ann Arbor Pioneer @ Temperance Bedford

High School Girls

Troy Athens 10, Rochester Adams 9
East Lansing 16, Battle Creek Harper Creek 5
East Grand Rapids 10, Caledonia 8
Rochester 18, Flushing 11
Grandville 10, Lowell 3
Grand Rapids Christian 17, Hudsonville 6
Grand Haven 24, Comstock Park 1
Livonia Ladywood 21, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 5
Lake Orion 21, West Bloomfield 5
Portage Northern 11, Mattawan United 6
Grosse Pointe North 13, Farmington Hills Harrison 10
Northview 11, Holland West Ottawa 7
Canton 16, Novi 11
Rockford 16, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 3
Salem 14, South Lyon United 8
Huron Valley United 16, Swartz Creek 4
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep @ Bloomfield Hills Lahser
Troy @ Clarkston
Lansing Waverly @ Grand Ledge
Plymouth @ Northville
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek @ Oxford

Yesterday’s Results

Division-2 Women

Davenport 19, Missouri Baptist 8
Grand Valley State 18, Ursuline 0
Aquinas 10, Robert Morris (Ill.) 12

High School Boys

Grosse Pointe University Liggett 8, Ann Arbor Greenhills 5
Saline 8, Ann Arbor Huron 5
Ann Arbor Skyline 16, Temperance Bedford 3
Utica 9, Anchor Bay Fairview 2
Davison 15, Bay City Central 3
Portage Northern 11, Battle Creek Harper Creek 9
Birmingham 15, Lake Orion 4
Ypsilanti Lincoln 12, Belleville 8
East Grand Rapids 13, Rockford 2
Rochester Adams 18, Farmington North-Harrison 2
Troy Athens 9, Farmington 5
Forest Hills Northern 11, Forest Hills Central 10
Midland 22, Saginaw Heritage 2
Oxford 8, Huron Valley-Lakeland 7
Mattawan 17, Kalamazoo United 4
Haslett-Williamston 9, Lansing Waverly 2
Forest Hills Eastern 9, Lowell 5
Holland Christian 15, Northview 7
Okemos 12, Holt 6
Portage Central 16, Battle Creek Lakeview 2
Bloomfield Hills 13, Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 6
Royal Oak 13, Auburn Hills Avondale 0
Hudsonville 14, Grand Rapids South Christian 2
Port Huron United 10, Henry Ford II 7
Utica Eisenhower 7, L’Anse Creuse North 4
Battle Creek Pennfield 13, Vicksburg 7
Rochester 11, West Bloomfield 6
Canton 17, Walled Lake Western 6
Warren Mott-Sterling Heights 13, Warren Cousino 4
Plymouth 15, Waterford 3
Zeeland 9, Grandville 8
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer @ Comstock Park
DeWitt @ Grand Ledge
Lapeer West-East @ Swartz Creek

High School Girls

Ann Arbor Pioneer 20, Ann Arbor Huron 8
DeWitt 14, Grand Ledge 1
Rochester 7, Rochester Adams 6
Troy Athens 9, Detroit Country Day 8
Farmington Hills Harrison 14, Walled Lake United 4
Ann Arbor Skyline @ Temperance Bedford
Birmingham United @ Cranbrook-Kingswood
Lansing Waverly @ Williamston-Haslett
Okemos @ Holt
West Bloomfield @ Plymouth
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek @ Waterford United

Today’s Schedule

Division-2 Women

Aquinas v. Missouri Baptist
Davenport v. Robert Morris (Ill.)

Division-3 Men

Calvin @ Alma

Division-3 Women

Olivet @ Alma

Collegiate Club Men

Grand Valley State v. Indiana Tech
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan

Collegiate Club Women

Michigan v. Michigan State

High School Boys

Grand Haven @ Holland West Ottawa
Forest Hills Central @ Rockford
Belleville @ Saline
Chelsea @ Tecumseh
L’Anse Creuse @ Henry Ford II
Clarkston @ Hudson (Ohio) Western Reserve Academy

High School Girls

Mattawan United @ Caledonia
Grand Haven @ Grandville
Williamston-Haslett @ Grand Rapids Christian
Holland West Ottawa @ Kalamazoo Central
Forest Hills United @ Okemos
Tecumseh @ Saline

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments. Also use the comments for discussion of today’s action.

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Scores and Schedule: April 14, 2014

A nice day for the Detroit women (and most college teams).

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Women

Detroit 17, Howard 5

Division-2 Women

Grand Valley State 15, Tiffin 9

Collegiate Club Men

Michigan-Dearborn 15, Toledo 14
Lawrence Tech 20, Ferris State 7

Collegiate Club Women

Central Michigan 10, West Virginia 18
Eastern Michigan 16, Western Michigan 7
Michigan State 10, Purdue 4
Michigan State 11, Miami (Ohio) 14
Western Michigan 16, Bowling Green 7
Central Michigan 8, Indiana 18
Central Michigan 7, Miami (Ohio) 16
Western Michigan 7, Toledo 17

High School Boys

Brother Rice 8, Culver (Ind.) Academy Prep 18
UD-Jesuit 4, Hudson (Ohio) Western Reserve Academy 5

Today’s Schedule

Division-3 Women

Kalamazoo v. Defiance

High School Boys

Dearborn Divine Child @ Madison Heights Bishop Foley
Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central @ Detroit Southeastern
Plymouth @ Flint Powers
Dexter @ Grosse Ile
Davison @ Saginaw Heritage
Northville @ Novi
Salem @ South Lyon
Waterford @ Swartz Creek
Anchor Bay Fairview @ Warren Cousino

High School Girls

Dexter @ Temperance Bedford
Plymouth @ Canton
Rochester Adams @ Clarkston
East Lansing @ DeWitt
Warren Regina @ Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
Grosse Pointe South @ Bloomfield Hills Marian
Livonia Ladywood @ Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
South Lyon United @ Northville
Midland Dow @ Oxford
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek @ Rochester
Novi @ Salem
Kalamazoo Central @ Tecumseh

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments. Also use the comments for discussion of today’s action.

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Scores and Schedule: April 13, 2014

A huge opportunity for Country Day’s boys to strike a blow against the Midwest’s top team, a bit of college action…

Friday’s Results

Division-2 Women

Aquinas 16, Indiana Tech 17
Davenport 29, Siena Heights 13
Grand Valley State 20, Alderson-Broadus 0

Collegiate Club Men

Aquinas 18, Lawrence Tech 6
Northwood 2, Judson 23
Western Michigan 7, West Virginia 9

Collegiate Club Women

Oakland 13, Central Michigan 5

High School Boys

Temperance Bedford 9, Belleville 1
Madison Heights Bishop Foley 16, Grosse Pointe University Liggett 13
Detroit Catholic Central 20, UD-Jesuit 8
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook 11, Buffalo (N.Y.) Bishop Timon St Jude 21
Warren De La Salle 15, Midland 7
Dearborn Divine Child 7, Grosse Ile 6
Grosse Pointe South 11, Grosse Pointe North 8

High School Girls

Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 14, Warren Regina 1
Salem 10, Plymouth 5
Farmington Hills Mercy @ Northville

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Men

Michigan 6, Ohio State 15
Detroit 8, Siena 9 (OT)

Division-1 Women

Michigan 13, Cal 12 (2OT)

Division-2 Women

Davenport 15, Indiana Tech 10

Division-3 Men

Alma 19, Adrian 4
Calvin 5, Trine 13
Olivet 18, Hope 13

Division-3 Women

Albion 22, Olivet 9
Calvin 18, Trine 5
Alma 10, Hope 5
Adrian 20, St. Mary’s (Ind.) 5

Collegiate Club Men

Northwood 1, Robert Morris (Ill.) 17
Central Michigan 18, Oakland 3
Aquinas 26, Taylor 6
Davenport 9, Michigan State 8
Western Michigan @ Pitt

Collegiate Club Women

Central Michigan 14, Bowling Green 3
Eastern Michigan 12, Purdue 6
Eastern Michigan 16, Bowling Green 3
Michigan State 11, West Virginia 6
Michigan State 23, Buffalo 8
Central Michigan 3, Ohio State 21
Saginaw Valley 7, Lake Forest 13

High School Boys

Brother Rice 13, Hudson (Ohio) Western Reserve Academy 2
Canton 13, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 11
Dearborn Divine Child 7, Ypsilanti Lincoln 6
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 9, Salem 6
Saginaw Heritage @ Bay City Western

High School Girls

Livonia Ladywood 13, Warren Regina 4
Temperance Bedford v. Whitehouse (Ohio) Anthony Wayne
Grosse Pointe University Liggett @ Cranbrook-Kingswood
Canton @ Grosse Pointe South

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Women

Detroit @ Howard

Division-2 Women

Grand Valley State v. Tiffin

Collegiate Club Men

Michigan-Dearborn @ Toledo
Lawrence Tech @ Ferris State

Collegiate Club Women

Central Michigan v. West Virginia
Michigan State v. Ohio
Michigan State v. Miami (Ohio)
Western Michigan v. Kent State
Eastern Michigan v. Ball State
Western Michigan v. Bowling Green
Central Michigan v. Indiana
Central Michigan v. Miami (Ohio)
Western Michigan @ Toledo

High School Boys

Brother Rice v. Culver (Ind.) Academy Prep
UD-Jesuit v. Hudson (Ohio) Western Reserve Academy

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments. Also use the comments for discussion of today’s action.

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Bracketology mini-update

Both Michigan and Detroit lost this afternoon. That bodes ill for each of their conference tournament seedings (though both are pretty much locks to make it in).

ECAC

For Michigan, the 1-3 Wolverines have a lone win over Bellarmine, and head-to-head losses to all three programs ahead of them in the league. That locks them in to the four-seed in the ECAC Tournament. Air Force, Fairfield, and Ohio State are all undefeated in the conference (pending today’s AFA/Fairfield game), so the other three seeds are up in the air.

The winner of today’s game – Air Force leads 9-5 in the third quarter – will have the inside track to the 1-seed with Ohio State still having to defeat both teams to take over that mantle. There’s the possibility of a tie (even a three-way tie) as well, so the big picture won’t become any clearer for a while.

MAAC

Since I put together charts of the possible outcomes today, here’s the “Siena wins, Canisius wins” column from Wednesday’s post. I’m still assuming Manhattan beats Monmouth tonight, but that’s no guarantee, even if it’s likely.

Team Record To Play
Siena 4-0 @QU, @Man
Canisius 3-2 BYE, @Mar
Quinnipiac 3-2 Siena, BYE
Detroit 2-2 @Man, @Mon
Manhattan 2-2 Mon*, UDM, Siena
Marist 1-3 @Mon, Can
Monmouth 0-4 Man*, Mar, UDM

Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision

Detroit currently occupies the fourth slot in the conference, but has the easiest remaining schedule (and boy howdy do those two overtime losses at home to other conference contenders hurt). When they’ve played the same number of games as Canisius, they should end up with the same record – if not better – and the Titans also hold the tiebreaker.

If Quinnipiac beats Siena, the Saints are still almost certain to win the league with a 5-1 record. That could result in a three-way tie for second place, which Quinnipiac would win due to the hypothetical win against Siena, while Detroit would have the head-to-head victory against Canisius and take the three seed. If Quinnipiac doesn’t knock of Siena, the Saints will win the league, Detroit and Canisius will tie for second (with the Titans gett the No. 2 seed due to the head-to-head win), and Quinnipiac needing Marist to not win out to take the No. 4 spot.

All told, as long as UDM takes care of business in the final two games, there does not appear to be a scenario in which they don’t play in the 2/3 game.

Posted in division 1 | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Detroit Preview: Siena

Casual Saturday afternoon MAAC action… with big implications. A weak start to the year will be forgiven if Detroit can seize its claim on a share of the conference title today.

Siena

Siena Saints Lacrosse

“Saints” as in “Saint Bernards,” rather than “canonized people.” I can dig it.

April 12, 2014. Noon EDT
Titan Field
Live stats. Gameday Central.
@DetroitTitans. @SienaLacrosse.
@GreatLaxState.
Detroit preview.pdf notes.
Lacrosse Magazine highlights.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. Siena almost always plays the toughest schedule in the MAAC, but this year they’re only No. 54 in that metric. That means these numbers have come against some weak squads.

Siena 2014
Pace 63.00 (42)
Poss% 51.90 (18)
Off. Eff. 27.97 (51)
Def. Eff. 29.48 (26)
Pyth% 51.82 (36)

Siena slows it down a bit, especially for a MAAC team (they tend to play fast and sloppy). That’s partially on account of their ability to possess it. As we’ve seen, playing slowly with a high possession percentage means very few opportunities for the opposition.

Siena has long been a powerful offensive team (for what is effectively a mid-major playing in the MAAC), but that’s not the case this year in the least. They’re on the border of the bottom 15 nationally. Part of that is the strength of schedule adjustment, but they’ve only hit double-digits four times in ten games against that weak schedule.

The defense for the Saints has been better, but it’s not exactly an elite unit, either. Syracuse (the only truly great offense they’ve played) nearly put up 20, and the rest of the schedule – while it may be comparable to Detroit – hasn’t been filled with Tewaaraton candidates, to say the least.

All told, Siena is a very good team, but they aren’t the MAAC-obliterating, “these guys belong in a better league” type of squad that they have been in the past. They’re at the head of the pack in the conference race, but not lapping the field.

Offense

Siena’s attack unit is the focal point of the offense. Starters Richie Hurley, Colin Clive, and Jordan Barlow (two seniors and a freshman, respectively) are scorers No. 1, 3, and 4 on the roster. Hurley is the only true assist man on the team with a 19-goal, 33-assist line to date. Clive and Barlow have combined for five total assists among their 38 combined points: they’re finishers.

The best-known offensive player for the Saint coming into the year was junior Conor Prunty, and he’s mostly lived up to the hype. He has 14 goals and seven assists on the season, nowhere near Hurley’s point total, but tops for midfielders. Fifth-year midfielder Kyle Curry has 12 goals and two assists and junior Nate Barry has eight and four to close out the double-digit scorers (and offensive starters).

While there’s a huge drop from Hurley to the second tier of scorers (which includes the remainder of the offensive starters in small increments down the list), there’s an even bigger dropoff beyond those guys: this team has no depth. Players beyond those listed above have combined for eight total points on the season. Thomas Schoener is the only one with double-digit shots (though he’s primarily a defensive player).

An attack-heavy offense is a poorer matchup for Detroit than the alternative, but the Saints are turnover-heavy this year, and that plays into the Titans’ ability (though not always employed) to take the ball away from opponents. Four of the starter-types have double-digit turnovers on the year.

Defense

Redshirt sophomore Tommy Cordts has played all but 22 minutes of the season between the pipes, and he has pretty good numbers. He’s saving .538 of shots faced, allowing 9.35 goals per game. The strength of schedule adjustment would explain away some of that (raw stats against bad teams are a little obscuring), but there’s no question he’s a solid keeper. Detroit’s issues are less about shots being saved than actually putting shots on the cage, though.

Poles Brendan Meehan and Adam Hall were preseason All-league according to IL, and they’ve lived up to that. Both seniors have 14 GBs, and Hall is the team’s leader in caused turnovers with eight. Junior Jake Kissick and senior Andrew Arnold both have plenty of starts as well, so clearly Siena is listing their LSM (betting Hall based on the statistical profile, though he played close defense last year) as a starter in most games.

Junior Ryan Mallon has only a couple appearances, but still leads SSDMs in GBs. If he’s healthy, he’s dangerous. The aforementioned Schoener is the most able to cause turnovers. Freshman Devin Votta has also played that role well. Given that Siena has no offensive production outside of their starters, lots of guys are jockeying to make an impact at defensive midfield in hopes of getting a bigger offensive role.

Special Teams

Casey Dowd has taken damn-near every faceoff for the Saints this year, and has won an excellent .589 of them. Look for him to dominate in this one. He also has tons of GBs (meaning clean wins), though he almost never goes forward with it, taking only two shots on the season. Sicne he’s not an offensive threat, I’m torn on whether it makes more sense for Detroit to stick a pole (Yono) out there to muck things up, or just let Hicks go out there and try to win cleanly with the understanding that you’re going to end up playing defense more often than not.

Siena has a great clear, but not much of a ride (especially given the competition they’ve faced). Detroit’s clear has been brutal lately, of course, so the Saints could ratchet up the pressure from time to time, knowing that it’s pretty likely to cause a turnover. UDM will need to play one of its cleanest games in that phase to even out possessions and have a strong chance to win.

Siena is not particularly penalty-prone, with approximately even EMOs for themselves and opponents. They’re pretty good at converting (.417), but the man-down has really struggled, allowing a .500 clip. Given that Detroit’s man-up has been at or near the top of the country much of the year, the Titans will have to capitalize on that clear advantage in order to keep pace offensively.

Big Picture

Detroit has long been a good-not-great MAAC team (an accomplishment in itself for a relatively young program), and knocking off Siena this afternoon would give them a chance to take that next step forward and become a consistent favorite to win the league. The Titans made the NCAA Tournament last year by taking home the MAAC Tournament Championship, and the regular-season title would be another step toward program improvement.

This one also has some large implications for MAAC Tournament seeding. A Detroit win gives UDM a very good possibility of taking home the No. 1 seed, and all-but locks up a top-half finish and a game against a team behind them in the conference standings.

Predictions

Detroit has been making strides toward a more consistent program, while Siena has long been the conference hegemon. Neither team, in my estimation, is at a peak year, and in fact both are rebuilding to an extent.

  • Mike Birney will finally connect on a long-range bomb for the first time in what feels like a month. Bigtime firepower is one way to intimidate even a good goalie, and that’s what Birney is known for.
  • Siena’s offense is just too much for Detroit’s thin defense. Especially given that it’s attack-based (meaning UDM’s strong short-stick D-middies won’t have the impact you’d normally like), this is a good matchup for Siena. That said, if Jason Weber can steal a couple goals – something he’s certainly capable of – that can be a great equalizer.
  • Even though Siena doesn’t ride hard, I expect Detroit’s problems clearing the ball to persist. Combined with what I expect to be dominance on faceoffs, that really hurst the possession game.
  • The key for Detroit will be avoiding turnovers in the settled offense. They’ve been relatively clean there the past three or four weeks, so this isn’t a pipe dream. If they don’t pull it off, this one could get out of hand. If they do, that’s where your chance for an upset lies, along with Weber.

Both programs are in a down cycle, but I trust Siena’s down years to be less down than Detroit’s given the relative histories (both long-term and recent) of both teams. Detroit will have to play a darn-near perfect game to get the win. While that’s certainly possible, it’s definitely not a safe prediction. Siena gets the road win, 12-10.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.

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Michigan Preview: Ohio State

While Michigan and Ohio State are both already in the ECAC Tournament, this game could have some pretty big seeding implications (and of course the rivalry factor means even more). From great challenge comes great opportunity…

Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes Lacrosse

A nut with a body. And a lacrosse stick.

April 12, 2014. 11 a.m. EDT
Ohio Stadium
Live stats. Big Ten Network
@UMichLacrosse. @UofMLaxManagers.
@GreatLaxState. @OhioState_MLax.
Michigan preview.pdf notes.
Ohio State preview. .pdf notes.
Maize n Brew preview.

Tempo-Free Profile

The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. Although Ohio State is just 4-6, a pretty tough strength of schedule (No. 12) and all of their losses (except against Notre Dame) being very competitive keep them the No. 30 overall team in the land.

Ohio State 2014
Pace 63.22 (40)
Poss% 49.74 (40)
Off. Eff. 28.12 (49)
Def. Eff. 25.96 (7)
Pyth% 55.37 (30)

The Buckeyes like to play pretty slowly, but they aren’t particularly good at controlling the majority of those possessions. That means they don’t get a ton of possessions per game for themselves, but they’re not a huge outlier in that area, just below the median in each metric.

It’s what they do when they have the ball that has doomed the Buckeyes at times this season. In three 70-plus possession games this season, they’ve cracked double-digits… zero times (though they have gotten there four times in slower contests, mostly against weaker competition). The offense has moved in fits and starts, helping lead to the six losses in 2014.

The defense should have taken a step forward from last year, and it did just that. The Buckeyes are elite on that side of the ball, which makes them a dangerous team to close the year strong. That will give them the ability to pick off anyone.

Add it all up, and you have an OSU squad that’s just slightly better than the midway point nationally. With wins in three of their last four, they’re clearly playing their best ball of the year to date.

Offense

Logan Schuss may be gone, but an offensive force from British Columbia still stirs the drink that is the OSU offense. Junior midfielder Jesse King has 19 goals and 20 assists on the year (giving him a hand in 41% of Ohio State’s goals this season), and is nearly double the point total of the next Buckeye, despite missing a game. King is a 6-3, 200-pound intimidator, and one of the best individual talents nationally.

Behind him, however, the Ohio State offense is still trying to find its way. Sophomore attack Carter Brown has 15 goals and 10 assists, junior midfielder Turner Evans (who is more attack-sized and -skilled at 5-9, 165) has nine goals and 14 assists, junior attack Reegan Comeault (another player out of British Columbia) has 11 goals and eight assists, and junior midfielder David Planning has 12 goals and four assists.

As you can see, the Buckeyes alternate leading scorers between attack and midfield, with assists and goals able to come from either spot on the field – though more concentrated in the midfielders with King and Evans the only high-scoring Buckeyes with more helpers than finishes (notable because OSU assists as high a percentage of its goals as just about anyone in the nation).

The sixth spot has not been super-productive, and it has rotate between several players. Sophomore Ryan Hunter has a single start (in five appearances – seems like he’s out for the year injured), freshman J.T. Blubaugh has two, and Charlie Schnider (who is no longer listed on the roster, so I’m guessing he’s off the team) had three. Denver transfer Gordie Koerber was expected to make a huge impact on the OSU offense, but the sophomore has scored just six points in three starts (and ten appearances).

While OSU has the talent for other guys to step up in the event that their leading five are shut down, it’s certainly not what they’re most comfortable doing. Given that Michigan’s best depth comes in the midfield portion of the defense, U-M should be able to win a couple matchups and slow down the offense, but shutting it down completely is out of the question.

Defense

This is where the Buckeyes excel the most. Even though he’s a returning second-team all-league selection and was Inside Lacrosse‘s preseason selection for first-team all-ECAC honors and an HM All-American, senior Greg Dutton has not been the man between the pipes for Ohio State. He’s received the most playing time (more than other goalies combined), but does not have stellar stats at a .471 save percentage and 9.01 goals against per contest, worst marks on the roster. While he’s not fully to blame, it’s certainly contributed to the Bucks’ 1-5 mark on his watch.

Fellow senior Scott Spencer has received three starts, going 2-1 while playing almost the entirety of all three. Those have been the three most recent games, so don’t be surprised if his .500 save percentage and 8.47 GAA make the start between the pipes. However, given that Koerber’s stats have come mostly against tougher teams (including a great performance against Denver), he should be available as well. Freshman Nick Doyle has also seen time, including a start, but is the third option for now.

That Ohio State’s goalies have such pedestrian numbers makes a really good defense look worse than it is… and it’s still down to just No. 7 nationally. Senior Joe Meurer isn’t flashy (just eight CTs and nine ground balls on the year), but is a solid positional defender. Sophomroe Robbie Haus is the leading takeaway guy on a team that’s pretty into causing turnovers (but spreads the stat across several players). He has 12 on the year, and is also the team’s leading non-FO ground ball leader. Junior Luke Howard and senior Dominic Imbordino – the Buckeyes’ designated longpole faceoff specialist – have split time at the other position. Evan Mulchrone and Chris Mahoney seem to be the team’s top LSMs, but the Buckeyes don’t designate who’s playing there. Darius Bowling is another option there.

There are a ton of short-stick midfielders who are either defensive specialists or just really, really unproductive offensive options. Freshman Sean Giampietro and senior Michael Italiano look to be two of the most oft-used, but looking at Ohio State’s stats, they may be more willing than a lot of teams to play two-way middies (or at least give their D-middies permission to fire away).

Special Teams

Ohio State is pedestrian on faceoffs, with freshman Jake Withers rounding into the role, now having taken more than half of OSU’s total draws. He’s also the only Buckeye approaching .500 on the year, and doing anything better than .500 against Michigan would see him hit that mark, since he’s one win below it at this point. He wins a lot of his draws to himself, as well. We’ve seen Brad Lott dominate against great specialists this year and struggle against poor ones, so while the assumption is still that he’ll do well (he’s in the top 15 nationally in percentage), there’s always the chance – no matter the opposition – that he’ll lay a clunker. In a rivalry game, I think it’s more likely we’ll see Good Brad. His emotional level in a hometown game against Bellarmine (21/24) is probably most comparable.

Ohio State has an outstanding clear, even though they’ve played a couple decent riding teams. Given that the Bucks seem to score a goal or two by breaking Michigan’s ride every year, look for the Wolverines to be a little more conservative tactically unless and until they can snap to it late (either because they’re out of it or to surprise the Bucks into a mistake).

Ohio State’s also a decently heavy ride team (top-15 nationally), and although Michigan’s clear is pretty good these days, the Wolverines are prone to making a mistake or two. While the Buckeyes are more Maryland style – effort and intensity, rather than scheme – that’s the type of ride that’s scarier for Michigan. They have the game intelligence to defeat a gimmick ride, but not yet enough athletes and solid sticks to be able to defeat pure athleticism every game out.

Ohio State isn’t particularly penalty-prone. When they do go man-down, however, their defense really struggles. They’re allowing .400 conversion on 30 man-down chances. Michigan’s man-up is pretty good (as long as the Wolverines don’t turn it over). On the other side, Ohio State converts EMOs as a .290 clip, a mediocre number.

Big Picture

U-M has a chance to spoil Ohio State’s “Showdown in the Shoe,” get its first win over a traditional rival (previous wins: Mercer x2, Saint Joseph’s, Detroit, Furman, Bellarmine), and really knock the Buckeyes down a peg. While OSU is on the rise late in the season, a loss to Michigan would demolish that momentum. It would also help the Wolverines recapture some of their own momentum.

This game is also big for ECAC Tournament seeding. A Michigan win gives U-M a strong chance to bump up to the three-seed if Air Force and/or Fairfield can hold serve against the Scarlet and Grey. While that’s probably not significant in the long run (Michigan’s not making the NCAA Tournament this year, let’s be honest), it is another step forward for the program. It wouldn’t be bad to avoid a rematch with Ohio State in the first round of the conference tourney, given that the Buckeyes are hosting it, as well.

Predictions

Ohio State’s season-long numbers do not impress, but several of their most impressive outings have been their recent ones. Michigan, on the other hand, has gone hot-and-cold over the course of the whole year.

  • While it’s no longer the lock that it was early in the year, I’m betting Brad Lott has a nice performance. Not only does Ohio State’s faceoff unit not impress, but Lott’s best game this season cam in a contest with high emotional factors for him (playing a bunch of his high school friends at Bellarmine in his hometown of Louisville), and that should give him the juice he needs to come out strong.
  • Despite Ohio State’s good ride, Michigan’s failed clears (and there won’t be many) will be more attributable to errors from the Wolverines rather than a great play by the Buckeyes.
  • Ohio State has a number of shooters, and plenty of players who can either shoot or feed. That’s trouble for a Michigan team with a goaltender who is capable of great games, but more likely to look “just OK” on any given outing. Robbie Zonino will have a save percentage well below .500.
  • Jesse King will have a big contest, and since one of Zonino’s weaknesses is stopping the outside shot, King’s assists will be more to his fellow midfielders than to attackmen.
  • Michigan will struggle to crack the Ohio State defense early, but running the offense through the midfielders (given that much of OSU’s best talent on defense is in the longpole contingent) will allow them to find openings, eventually loosening things up for an Ian King hat trick.

Michigan’s program is still a year away – especially given OSU’s huge impending losses from the senior class – from being able to go man-for-man with the Buckeyes. The rivalry factor does throw an element of the unknown into this one. Two years ago, it helped Michigan stay closer than expected. Last year, OSU wipe the floor with the Wolverines. This time around, I think it helps U-M stay close through a couple quarters (with runs by both teams mixed in), before Ohio State pulls away for a 12-8 win.

Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.

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Scores and Schedule: April 11, 2014

A huge opportunity for Country Day’s boys to strike a blow against the Midwest’s top team, a bit of college action…

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Women

Detroit 10, California 11

Division-3 Women

Hope 12, Olivet 8

Collegiate Club Men

Siena Heights 19, Ferris State 1

Collegiate Club Women

Oakland 8, Michigan State 5

High School Boys

Detroit Country Day 8, Culver (Ind.) Academy Prep 21
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 11, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 9
Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central 17, Royal Oak Shrine 3
Bay City Central @ Saginaw Heritage
Canton @ Orchard Lake St Mary’s

High School Girls

Grosse Pointe South 19, Detroit Country Day 2
Livonia Ladywood 16, Grosse Pointe North 4
Bloomfield Hills Marian 16, Hartland 11
Plymouth 8, Whitehouse (Ohio) Anthony Wayne 9
Temperance Bedford 7, Sylvania (Ohio) Northview 9
Saginaw Heritage @ Midland Dow

Today’s Schedule

Division-2 Women

Aquinas v. Indiana Tech
Siena Heights @ Davenport
Grand Valley State v. Alderson-Broadus

Collegiate Club Men

Lawrence Tech @ Aquinas
Northwood @Judson
Western Michigan @ West Virginia

Collegiate Club Women

Central Michigan @ Oakland

High School Boys

Belleville @ Temperance Bedford
Grosse Pointe University Liggett @ Madison Heights Bishop Foley
UD-Jesuit @ Detroit Catholic Central
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook v. Buffalo (N.Y.) Bishop Timon St Jude
Midland @ Warren De La Salle
Dearborn Divine Child @ Grosse Ile

High School Girls

Warren Regina @ Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
Farmington Hills Mercy @ Northville
Salem @ Plymouth

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments. Also use the comments for discussion of today’s action.

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Scores and Schedule: April 10, 2014

A huge opportunity for Country Day’s boys to strike a blow against the Midwest’s top team, a bit of college action…

Yesterday’s Results

Division-1 Women

Michigan 10, Brown 19

Division-2 Women

Siena Heights 19, Lawrence Tech 11

Division-3 Men

Albion 20, Calvin 6
Adrian 19, Hope 9
Olivet 17, Alma 8

Collegiate Club Men

Davenport 21, Central Michigan 7

Collegiate Club Women

Michigan 18, Michigan State 8

High School Boys

Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central 7, Temperance Bedford 6
Salem 11, Madison Heights Bishop Foley 10
Hartland 10, Plymouth 5
Brother Rice Orange 17, Grosse Pointe North 2

High School Girls

Cranbrook Kingswood 17, Bloomfield Hills Sacred Heart Academy 7
Bloomfield Hills Marian 18, Farmington Hills Mercy 9
Salem 15, Northville 6
Temperance Bedford 6, Sylvania (Ohio) Northview 3
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard @ Pontiac Notre Dame Prep

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Women

Detroit v. California

Division-3 Women

Olivet @ Hope

Collegiate Club Men

Ferris State @ Siena Heights

Collegiate Club Women

Oakland @ Michigan State

High School Boys

Detroit Country Day @ Culver (Ind.) Academy Prep
Bay City Central @ Saginaw Heritage
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard @ Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
Canton @ Orchard Lake St Mary’s
Royal Oak Shrine @ Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central

High School Girls

Grosse Pointe South @ Detroit Country Day
Livonia Ladywood @ Grosse Pointe North
Bloomfield Hills Marian @ Hartland
Saginaw Heritage @ Midland Dow
Plymouth v. Whitehouse (Ohio) Anthony Wayne

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments. Also use the comments for discussion of today’s action.

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MAAC Bracketology

I ran through the bracketology for the ECAC yesterday (while admittedly keeping things a little open-ended), and it’s time to take a look at the possibilities for each team – particularly Detroit – in the more-complicated MAAC.

The Scene

The MAAC schedule is much more even than that of the ECAC, with every team in the league having played either three or four games to date. In a seven-team conference, that means teams either have two games remaining (if they’ve already played four) or three (if that’s the number they’ve already played).

Siena – as has often been the case over the course of league history – looks like the class of the MAAC, whereas new program Monmouth is struggling in its first year as a Division-1 program.

What We Know Now

Since none of the four-games-played teams are either undefeated or winless, there is one more weekend necessary to officially eliminate anyone or say for sure that a given team has made the field. With the – fairly safe – assumption that Monmouth won’t knock off anyone in the league (maybe not that safe, since they still face the two worst teams in conference play and host a Detroit team that can be up-and-down), I would rule them out.

Team Record To Play
Siena 3-0 @UDM, @QU, @Man
Quinnipiac 3-1 Can, Siena, BYE
Detroit 2-1 Siena, @Man, @Mon
Canisius 2-2 @QU, BYE, @Mar
Manhattan 1-2 Mon, UDM, Siena
Marist 1-3 BYE, @Mon, Can
Monmouth 0-3 @Man, Mar, UDM

Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision

Siena and Quinnipiac control their own destiny by being right next to each other at the top of the standings (with Quinnipiac’s loss coming to Marist, which doesn’t look likely to figure into the conference title race). Detroit is close, with a game this weekend against Siena – and just two of the worst three teams in the league following that – but needs a Quinnipiac loss to have a guaranteed shot at the conference crown. That overtime loss to the Golden Griffins hurst, especially since it should have been a regulation win.

The four-spot looks to be a battle between Canisius, Manhattan, and Marist, with a slight possibility that one of those top three teams drops down (though there would be some tiebreaker anarchy in play, as well).

Siena cannot finish behind Monmouth or Marist, barring weird tiebreaker scenarios that are certain to not come into play. Quinnipiac can’t finish behind Monmouth. Beyond that, just about everything else is up in the air.

This Weekend

Marist is the team with the league bye this week (they also don’t have a weekend game at all, traveling to Hofstra tonight then taking a casual 11-day break before seeing Monmouth). The three games that are on the docket can all have an impact on the conference race, however.

I’m operating on the (as noted above, perhaps faulty) assumption that Manhattan will be able to take care of Monmouth at home Saturday. That would effectively eliminate the Hawks from MAAC tournament contention, and go a long way toward keeping Manhattan ahead of Marist in the pecking order for that fourth spot. Since I’m assuming an outcome there, that means there are two meaningful games this weekend.

The headliner is the Siena/Detroit contest. The league’s top team against the No. 3 squad could see a shakeup in the table. A Siena win doesn’t seal the league, but it could set up a massive 1v2 battle the following weekend against Quinnipiac. A Detroit win results in what is effectively a three-way tie at the top of the league, unless the Golden Griffins fall to Canisius (which would be a totally reasonable outcome).

Although the stakes are somewhat different as a 2v4 battle, the Quinnipiac/Canisius game could be even more interesting, and might have greater long-term implications. A Quinnipiac win combined with a Siena win means those two teams are basically locked into the top two spots in the conference – and they’d battle for top honors the following weekend. A Quinnipiac loss suddenly makes Marist (which, it must be noted won the league last year an extreme longshot to make the MAAC Tournament.

Here are tables of the possible outcomes (assuming Manhattan beats Monmouth because that’s just a headache I don’t need right now. We saw a huge upset on the final day of the regular season last year though, so anything is possible), and where they’d see the standings look when the dust settles Sunday morning:

Siena W Quin W Siena W Can W
Siena 4-0 Siena 4-0
Quinnipiac 4-1 Canisius 3-2
Detroit 2-2 Quinnipiac 3-2
Manhattan 2-2 Detroit 2-2
Canisius 2-3 Manhattan 2-2
Marist 1-3 Marist 1-3
Monmouth is eliminated Monmouth is eliminated

Detroit is down tiebreakers to both teams clearly ahead of them in the standings, but would actually own the tiebreaker over Canisius should they finish tied in the standings (as they’d likely be once they’d play the same number of conference games in the scenario on the right). Monmouth would be down tiebreakers to Manhattan and Canisius (two teams who could finish with four losses, assuming Monmouth suddenly went on a tear) and be eliminated regardless of how they finish their season.

Detroit W Quin W Detroit W Can W
Quinnipiac 4-1 Detroit 3-1
Detroit 3-1 Siena 3-1
Siena 3-1 Canisius 3-2
Manhattan 2-2 Quinnipiac 3-2
Canisius 2-3 Manhattan 2-2
Marist 1-3 Marist 1-3
Monmouth is eliminated Monmouth is eliminated

In this scenario, UDM is tied with Siena, in possession of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Whether that’s for the 1-2 spots or the 2-3 spots depends upon Quinnipiac. If the Golden Griffins lose, there’s suddenly a decent chance that they don’t even make the conference tournament. Same with the Bearcats.

If Monmouth can knock of Manhattan, the Hawks are no longer out of contention, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Marist is also hanging on by a thread – the Red Foxes almost certainly need to win their final two conference games to have a shot at the league tournament – so they’ll be scoreboard watching with extreme interest this Saturday.

The Big Picture

Other than this weekend’s game, Detroit actually has a pretty easy finish to the league slate. Barring a major slipup on the road against Manhattan or Monmouth, the Titans can’t finish any worse than 4-2, which would guarantee a seat at the MAAC Tournament table. As we saw last year, that’s all they need.

The ease of the final two games also draws into relief just how important this weekend’s contest against Siena is. It’s a one-game playoff for the opportunity to win the MAAC regular-season title. That would be a program first.

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Scores and Schedule: April 9, 2014

Limited college action and most high schools on spring break. :(

Yesterday’s Results

Division-2 Women

Siena Heights 18, Lawrence Tech 15

Division-3 Women

Adrian 25, Kalamazoo 9
Hope 16, St. Mary’s (Ind.) 10
Calvin 18, Olivet 10
Alma 22, Trine 9

High School Boys

Madison Heights Bishop Foley 15, Royal Oak Shrine 6
Bloomfield Hills 15, Grosse Ile 4
Brother Rice 20, Cranbrook 8
Detroit Country Day 12, UD-Jesuit 9
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 12, Dearborn Divine Child 4
Grosse Pointe South 12, Grosse Pointe North 7
Howell 16, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 8
Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central 10, Belleville 4
Orchard Lake St Mary’s @ Warren De La Salle
Swartz Creek @ Saginaw Heritage

Today’s Schedule

Division-1 Women

Michigan @ Brown

Division-3 Men

Calvin v. Albion @ Grand Rapids Christian High School
Hope @ Adrian
Alma @ Olivet

Collegiate Club Women

Michigan @ Michigan State
Michigan State v. Notre Dame Club

High School Boys

Monroe St. Mary-Catholic Central @ Temperance Bedford
Salem @ Madison Heights Bishop Foley
Plymouth @ Hartland

High School Girls

Bloomfield Hills Sacred Heart Academy @ Cranbrook Kingswood
Farmington Hills Mercy @ Bloomfield Hills Marian
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard @ Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
Salem @ Northville
Temperance Bedford @ Sylvania (Ohio) Northview

Corrections, omissions, etc. always appreciated in the comments. Also use the comments for discussion of today’s action.

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