More teams, but a little more simple than the Big Ten bracketology by virtue of a slightly more stratified league.
- Marist, at 5-0, cannot be caught even in the unlikely event of a a loss to Siena.
- Quinnipiac, at 4-2, is locked into the No. 2 seed. 3-2 Detroit is the only team that can catch them in the standings, but the Bobcats hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- Manhattan, at 0-5, is eliminated from conference tourney contention.
Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision
Seeds 3 and 4 are still up for grabs. We’ll start with possible outcomes if Detroit wins, because that’s by far the simpler scenario. UDM is in with the three-seed, then…
- Canisius is eliminated if either of Monmouth (likely over Manhattan) or Siena (unlikely over Marist) gets a victory.
- If only one or the other of Monmouth and Siena achieves a win, that team gets the No. 4 seed.
- Monmouth holds the tiebreaker over Siena, so in the event that both win, the Hawks make the tournament.
- If all three squads lose, they’re in a mini-conference scenario tied at 2-4, which Monmouth wins with head-to-head victories over the other two.
If Detroit loses to Canisius, the situations can get pretty complicated, unless both Monmouth and Siena lose. That would drop them to 2-4, so Canisius is the three-seed (head-to-head victory) and Detroit is the four-seed with both sitting at 3-3.
If Canisius wins and at least one of Monmouth and Siena wins, we’re in a multi-way tie that will have some complicated mini-conference tiebreakers at play. There is one simple outcome (Siena wins, Monmouth loses):
|Siena win, Monmouth loss
(3-3, 2-0 mini-conference)
(3-3, 1-1 mini-conference)
|Siena (3-3, 0-2 mini-conference)
If Canisius, Monmouth, and Siena all win, we’re at a deadlock down the standings. The mini-conference would see Canisius, Detroit, and Monmouth at 2-1, with Siena at 0-3, eliminating the Saints, but seeing the resulting mini-conference deadlocked at 1-1 all around. Goal differential would come into play there. Current standings as follows:
- Monmouth +2
- Detroit +1
- Canisius -3
The only relevant game to the mini-conference is the Detroit/Canisius contest, so goal differential in that game would be the deciding factor. Remember, this is onlt in the event of a Canisius win over Detroit, so…
- Canisius wins by 1 goal. Monmouth plus-2, Detroit even, Canisius minus-2. Canisius eliminated on goal differential.
- Canisius wins by 2 goals. Monmouth plus-2, Canisius minus-1, Detroit minus-1, Titans eliminated by virtue of head-to-head loss.
- Canisius wins by 3-4 goals. Monmouth plus-2, Canisius even (or plus-1), Detroit minus-two (or minus-3)
- Canisius wins by 5 goals. Monmouth plus-2 (wins head-to-head tiebreaker), Canisius plus-2, Detroit minus-4.
- Canisius wins by 6-plus goals. Canisius plus-3 (or more), Monmouth plus-2, Detroit minus 5 (or more).
If Siena loses to Marist but the other two results (Canisius over Detroit and Monmouth over Manhattan) hold, the mini-conference is just set up one tiebreaker earlier, and the scenarios for goal differential remain the same.
So. Easy path for Detroit to make the conference tournament: Just win, baby (or lose by only one goal). Detroit is the three-seed with a win, and the four-seed (or totally eliminated) with a loss.