Michigan MCLA Preview: Oregon

With their win over Lindenwood last night, Michigan has advanced to the quarterfinal round of the MCLA National Championship tournament. Their opponent will be somebody they’ve already seen this year (as is everyone left in the tournament, except Florida State), as they took on Oregon at the beginning of the year.

Oregon

Today 4PM MDT, Dick’s Sporting Goods Park. Streaming Live on CollegeLax.tv.
Record: 12-6 (3-0 PNCLL South)
Rankings: 8 (Seeding), 12 (adidas), 11 (Prodigy), 15 (Computer).
Common Opponents: @ Chapman (L 5-9), Michigan State (L 9-14).

When Last We Met

Michigan beat the Ducks in a double-overtime thriller at a rainy neutral site in Southern California at the beginning of the year. BHSvideodad has the evidence:

Before I start this paragraph, I’d like to clarify that I am not making excuses. However, as pointed out in the video, Michigan had transportation issues (yay, LA traffic!) that saw them get to the game late, which disrupted early-game rhythm, and – more tangibly – gave Oregon the opening possession, on which they drew first blood. In monsoon-y weather, Michigan dug a first-half hole, but once both teams had a chance to get into game mode, the Wolverines turned it on and earned the win. As I finish this paragraph, I’d like to clarify that I’m not making an excuse for a poor performance last time.

Either way, both teams are entering this game on more-even footing, having both played yesterday, and both coming from the same place. Given the conditions last the last couple times these two teams played (a blizzard in Dallas, of all places, preceded the Hollywood rain), I expect an earthquake today.

The result last time should be a huge motivating factor for Coach Kerwin and the Ducks. Giving up a 4-goal lead in the fourth to lose in double overtime will add another layer to the intensity. Sure, MCLA teams don’t need additional motivation to get up against Michigan, but every little bit helps, right?

How They Got Here

Oregon started the year poorly. Like, really poorly. The offense was in a funk as they scored a combined 8 goals against lowly Cal and Santa Clara. Though the Michigan game seemed like a natural turning point, they still dropped contests to Chapman and Michigan State while barely defeating a poor Sonoma State team their next three times out.

They turned it on over the back half of the schedule though, finishing the regular season with 7 wins in their final 8 games, with the lone loss coming to top-10 Colorado. The run included 7-6 victories over tournament-bound Minnesota-Duluth and Cal Poly.

The Ducks sealed up their PNCLL automatic bid by pasting Montana State and Oregon State in the lead-up to the final. After 3 quarters in Wilsonville OR, they were deadlocked at 8 with Simon Fraser, before turning on the jets to finish a 16-8 victory. Though SFU had a serious down year, they were competent opposition, and 8 goals in a quarter against them is impressive nonetheless.

In the first round of the MCLA Tournament, Oregon faced a rematch with Cal Poly. They took down the mustangs 11-8, a slightly more impressive performance than the 7-6 home win just over a month earlier.

The Team

Despite the outbursts against Fraser (the Ducks also scored 22 on SFU in the regular season), Oregon’s offense was stagnant much of the year, so it comes as no surprise that they only have two players averaging more than 2 PPG. Senior middie Kevin Clark has a nearly-even split between goals and assists, while his  junior linemate Spencer Robertson is primarily a finisher. Senior midfielder Justin Eckenroad has slightly more goals than assists, and sophomore attacks Matt Johnson and Danny Purcell are also 1 PPG. Additionally, keep an eye on Evan Merritt, who is coming on strong at the end of the year.

A pair of redshirt defensemen, junior Mike Gerrard and Sophomore Nate Morse, are near the top of the team’s ground ball charts. True sophomore Ben Smood is up there as well. Senior Nick Johnson is the Ducks’ starting goalie, and he’s saving .591 of shots faced this season.

Junior Jeff Garrett is the team’s primary faceoff specialist, as he has more than four times the attempts of the next closest Duck (per the MCLA’s oft-incomplete stats page, at least). He’s winning .622 of faceoffs on the year, and leads the team in GBs.

Last time against Michigan, The Ducks won a third of faceoffs, and Johnson saved only .471 of shots faced. That may speak more closely to Oregon’s predicted performance against top-notch competition. Justin Eckenroad, Kevin Clark, and Max Schlesinger each scored two goals for UO, with the latter pair adding an assist as well. Oddly enough, Schlesinger has only put up 12 points over the rest of the schedule after scoring 3 on the Wolverines.

Predictions

As much as a heartbreaking, come-from-ahead loss is motivating to the Ducks, an overtime win is almost as good as a loss to the Wolverines, from a motivation standpoint. Both teams will come out fired up, and ready to play. That could mean sloppy, penalty-filled ball to open up the game.

As the game goes on, the play should improve to the standards we’ve come to expect from these teams. Of course, that also means a much higher bar for Michigan than it does for Oregon. The Wolverines have been a higher-scoring squad against mostly better competition, and the Ducks’ defense, while stout, has been holding down the likes of Boise State – not exactly a team with the talent of Michigan.

After a rough first quarter (though the first half of the previous matchup may be the motivation needed to not start slow), I think Michigan starts to pull away in this one, but Oregon scores a couple unanswered in the third to keep it close, before Michigan hangs on for the 12-9 win.