Not much has changed in Newark in the two weeks since I took a look at their team the first time around, but let’s take a closer look at tomorrow’s opponent for the Titans.
Fear the, uh, Heel!
North Carolina
Noon. Feb. 18, 2012
Chapel Hill, NC
2011
10-6 (1-2 CAA). #10 LaxPower, #9 Poll.
Lost to Maryland in the first round of the NCAA Tournament (6-13)
Tempo-Free Profile
| North Carolina 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | Opponents | ||
| Faceoff Wins | 207 | Faceoff Wins | 152 |
| Clearing | 250-282 | Clearing | 244-290 |
| Possessions | 535 | Possessions | 474 |
| Goals | 168 | Goals | 141 |
| Offensive Efficiency | .314 | Offensive Efficiency | .297 |
The Tar Heels were a good offensive and possession team last year, and a below-average defensive team. They also played a slow brand of ball, surprising given their reputation.
They have opened up 2012 with victories over Penn State (at a neutral site) and at Mercer (who is Mercer). With not enough data for it to be statistically relevant (or in the least accurate) they are the fourth-best team in the country so far.
Offense
Nine of the Tar Heels’ top ten scorers from last year’s team, although the only loss is Billy Bitter, last year’s highest-profile player.
Fortunately for UNC, Bitter wasn’t even close to leading the team in scoring, as freshman Nicky Galasso finished with 24 goals and 32 assists to leave him 17 points clear of Bitter, the second-leading scorer among Tar Heels. Galasso should be even more polished as a sophomore, and may take on a bigger scoring role in the absence of Bitter.
Now a senior, attackman Thomas Wood was third on the team in scoring last season. Jimmy Dunster, also a senior, was the top scorer among midfielders, coming in with 13 goals and 8 assists, fifth on the team in points.
With such a solid core returning (aside from Bitter, the top scorer who isn’t back is defenseman Ryan Flanagan, who had all of five points on the year), expect this UNC attack to be even better than last year’s. Through two games – one against (what we presume to be) a good defense and one against a bad defense – they’re scoring at a .405 goals per possession clip.
Defense
Senior defenseman Charlie McComas should be a leader of the unit, along with sophomore Jordan Smith. Ryan Flanagan and Kevin Piegare won’t be easy to replace, but they weren’t statistically impressive last year, and the defense wasn’t particularly good, anyway. With such a high-powered offense, it might not matter.
In goal, Steven Rastivo will be the man after splitting time with Chris Madalon as a redshirt sophomore. He saved .534 of shots faced and allowed 8.18 goals per game. Backup Matt Holman could see a bigger role as a senior.
Special Teams
R.G. Keenan had a stellar freshman year on faceoffs, winning .595 of them. He’s back this season, and has started out winning .744 of his draws. Since that’s only two games in, the competition can be questioned, but that’s a solid start.
The Heels were an excellent clearing team but a poor riding team last year. They seem to have stepped it up on the ride early in the year (one game against Mercer, as a strength-of-schedule note), and are still clearing at a great rate.
The Heels are committing many more penalties (10) than opponents (3) so far this year, but Detroit hasn’t exactly been playing clean ball themselves. Opponents are converting half of their man-up attempts, so Detroit should look good if they draw some penalties instead of committing them.
Big Picture
North Carolina is really good, particularly on offense. With R.G. Keenan dominating on faceoffs, it may not matter too much how bad their defense is, and at least through two games, it hasn’t been awful (.270, better than last year).
This is one of the most talented teams in the country, and they probably won’t bat an eyelash despite losing Billy Bitter this offseason.
The way to beat this team seems to be making the most of your own offensive opportunities, and drawing plenty of penalties. That’s a tall task for a Detroit team that, even in victory on Sunday, has yet to play clean, solid lacrosse.
Predictions
This one looks unwinnable for the Titans, especially on the road. If they play their best game of the year (seeing as how they’ve played poorly in three straight, that seems unlikely), they can stick in the contest, but that’s about it.
- Detroit struggles to win more than 20% of faceoffs.
- North Carolina’s transition game starts off hot, but cools down as the Tar Heels build a lead and slow down the game.
- Shayne Adams and Joel Matthews combine for at least three goals with one assisting the other. unfortunately, both are held to just a point or two outside of that.
As mentioned above, Detroit would have to play perfectly to even stick in a game against a team this talented, that is playing very well to start the season. I’d like to think that the win over Michigan was the start of turning the corner, but they looked sloppry on Sunday, despite the result. North Carolina breezes to a 15-5 victory.