Michigan Preview: Bellarmine

Michigan’s loss to Bellarmine last year, in my mind, was the nadir of Team One’s performance. It came off the heels of a decent performance against Loyola, and sunk what would have been a huge confidence-builder into nothing. Michigan would rebound to close out the season with some decent performances against good teams (before getting blasted by UNC in the final outing), and a win against Bellarmine would have meant Team One left a sour taste in very few fans’ mouths.

Bellarmine

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1 p.m. EST Feb. 16, 2013
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One game of numbers is more like a boxscore than a look at the full stats, so keep in mind when digesting these numbers that Bellarmine’s victory over Robert Morris on the road last weekend would have been a pretty big upset, per the numbers of last year. As always, it’s possible that Robert Morris got worse instead of Bellarmine getting better, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

This was about as even as games come. Robert Morris made up for a slight disadvantage on faceoffs by turning a few of those defensive possessions into clearing opportunities. The teams were separated by just one possession, and one goal.

Totally fitting for a game that never saw more than a two-goal lead (7-5 RMU at halftime), it went down to the wire. It was a very big defensive battle as well, with neither offense able to have much success.

For now, take a look at their status coming into the year, which gives a picture of where they’re expected to improve and slide back (let’s pretend like I didn’t say the defense would be bad).

Offense

This early in the season, take scoring totals with a grain of salt. However, Bellarmine was in a neck-and-neck game against Robert Morris, so it’s fair to assume they played their first lines as much as possible.

Bellarmine put put a very even scoring effort, with nine goals coming from seven different players. Five of those goals game from starting attackmen (two each form Michael Ward and Cameron Gardner, plus Ward added a couple assists). D-pole Sean Joyce also chipped in a goal, likely on a transition opportunity from the ride.

Early returns make this looks like an attack-centric offense, though transition opportunities from a heavy ride (despite a decent clearing day from RMU, Bellarmine was a heavy-riding team last year, and I would be surprised if that’s changed) help get more personnel involved.

Despite some obvious weaknesses on Michigan’s defense, a greatly improved situation in net, combined with the mediocre (so far) output of the opposition gives some confidence.

Defense

I was down on the defense coming into the year, but they absolutely smothered a Robert Morris offense that was one of the country’s best last year. I have a hard time believing that a BU defense replacing damn near every starter improved by that much. Did Robert Morris get worse? Was there terrible weather in Pittsburgh last week (the boxscore mentions it was cold, but nothing about precipitation or wind).

For a team to clear the ball relatively well but accomplish next to nothing on offense should speak to good D… but the similarly poor offensive output from Bellarmine makes me think it might be a fluke.

Special Teams

Bellarmine was a poor faceoff team last year, but David Herring performed excellently on draws against RMU, so that may not be a problem this weekend. Of course, Michigan will be getting Brad Lott back on the active roster, and if he lives up to high expectations, Michigan should still be able to hold their own, at the very least.

Both teams employed a heavy ride last year, but we didn’t see much of it from either team in season openers. For Michigan, that may have been to avoid transition opportunities for a talented Penn State team (they showed 10-man ride several times, but popped the goalie back into the cage pretty quickly when the ball advanced), and for Bellarmine… well, you can’t knock what they were doing when even a poor ride was part of a gameplan that just destroyed the Robert Morris offense.

Big Picture

Every game for Michigan is a chance to earn the first win of the year (until it happens, of course), and prove that this thing will work out. The Wolverines could have beaten BU last year but for one of their worst performances in Year One, and a greatly improved Michigan squad will be hungry. After only one win all last season, U-M is still seeking its first official victory over an ECAC foe, as well.

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Predictions

If Michigan’s going to win a conference game this year, I’m pretty confident in saying this is their best shot. Despite the away game factor, Bellarmine is closer to Michigan’s level than to the rest of the league.

• Brad Lott starts and performs well on faceoffs, winning two-thirds of his draws and giving Michigan an overall possession advantage, something that happened only four times all of last year.
• The Bellarmine defense shows that its excellent stats so far were something of a paper tiger, allowing Michigan an offensive efficiency well upwards of .200.
• Gerald Logan continues his excellent form from the scrimmages and the Penn State game. He’s also needed, because slow slides by the U-M defense give up some easy looks.

Like with Detroit, I have a hard time predicting Michigan upset wins until I’ve actually seen one. I’m almost leaning toward picking the Wolverines on the strength of what I perceive to be a likely possession advantage, but until they’ve shown they can close out a game against an opponent that’s not completely overmatched (as Mercer was in the only Michigan win last year), I’m not predicting it. Bellarmine 13, Michigan 11.