Loyola hasn’t been nearly up to last year’s standard (duh – the Hounds lost one game the entirety of 2012), but this is still a really good lacrosse team. Given that one of the best players in Loyola’s program returned to action this week, they should play even better than the season-long results to date.
Loyola
Fear the Greyhound!
3:00 p.m. EST
March 23, 2013
Michigan Stadium – Ticket information.
Michigan weekly release.
Loyola release. Loyola game notes.
Live Stats. Live video ($).
Tempo-Free Profile
With TempoFreeLax.com fully up to date, the numbers shown here are adjusted for the strength of schedule (Loyola has played the nation’s No. 24 toughest schedule to date, well above-average).
| Colgate 2013 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 64.63 (34) |
| Poss% | 53.14 (6) |
| Off. Eff. | 35.23 (13) |
| Def. Eff. | 26.96 (17) |
| Pyth% | 77.21 (10) |
Loyola was annoyingly slow last year, but outstanding in just about every respect. They’ve sped things up a bit this year, but aren’t quite as great in the other respects.
The Greyhounds have a pretty good faceoff unit and a below-average ride, but what has helped them crush possession percentage is an outstanding clear – they’re converting 91.88% of attempts.
They’re very good on both ends of the field, with an exceptional offense (no surprise with the talent they have there) and a defense that is not far off. Neither of those units is anywhere near last year’s unreal units.
Let’s take a closer look at the personnel and what makes this team go.
Offense
Junior attack Justin Ward was the third banana in last year’s efficient offense, behind Mike Sawyer and Eric Lusby. This year, Lusby’s no longer around and Sawyer has missed a couple games, and Ward has taken over this team. He has 19 goals and 20 assists for a very balanced output.
Sophomore attack Niko Pontrello is behind him with 10 goals and 12 assists, and then there’s a slight gap before senior midfielder Chris Layne (10 goals and six assists) and Sawyer, a senior attackman who is the true finisher with 13 shots and two assists. Sawyer’s production (which, if it’s like last year’s, is mostly on 10-yard rockets) would be slightly higher if he hadn’t missed a couple games to date.
Senior midfielders Sean O’Sullivan and Davis Butts have nine point’s apiece, with O’Sullivan’s all on finishes, and Butts’s slanted toward assists. Junior midfielder Pat Laconi has eight on four and four.
Defense
Though the offense had the star power last year, the defense was actually the (slightly) better unit.
Unfortunately, many of its starters (Dylan Grimm is the only key loss among them) return. Senior LSM Scott Ratliff is the team’s leader in caused turnovers and ground balls, though he’s not credited with any starts (Sophomore Pat Frazier has earned the nod most of the time). Senior Reid Acton and junior Joe Fletcher are returning starters. The third spot has seen a few players get a chance, including senior T.J. Harris.
The short-stick midfield situation is an interesting one – and probably not in a good way for Michigan. Senior Josh Hawkins is considered one of the nation’s best, and he sat out every game this year… until Wednesday’s win over Georgetown. In addition to his ability to shut down offensive midfielders, he has the ability to quickly turn defense into offense for the Hounds. He’ll be a big issue for Michigan to deal with.
The goalkeeper is junior Jack Runkel, a returning starter. Considering how good the Loyola defense is overall, his numbers really aren’t very good. He’s saving only .500 of shots faced. However, he’s seeing very few shots this year, so that partially explains things.
Special Teams
Loyola is a pretty good faceoff team, but I’m of the opinion – and the Colgate game didn’t dissuade me of it – that Michigan is rounding into form as a pretty good one itself. I think a stalemate between Blake Burkhart (.525) or Brendan Donovan (.500) is fair, with maybe a slight advantage to Michigan. On the other hand, Michigan went with a pole on faceoffs last year against the Hounds, and could concede to play defense once more.
As mentioned above, Loyola doesn’t put a lot of effort into the ride. Opponents have been more than willing to still turn it over on 12.68% of attempts anyway. Michigan has been inconsistent on the clear, so that’s a battle to watch. Loyola’s clear is excellent, and it’s probably not worth the inevitable transition goals for Michigan to ride heavily.
I expect a pretty clean game, but it’s worth noting that Loyola’s EMO is outstanding while the man-down defense is pretty lockdown.
Big Picture
Michigan played Loyola closer than expected last year, and that was a better Greyhounds team than this year’s edition (and a worse Michigan team). This probably isn’t one that Michigan has the horses to keep close through the fourth quarter, much less be in position to steal a win.
I’ve reiterated time and again that there are no moral victories for the Wolverines this year, but staying competitive and looking for positive signs to take into the next few games is probably a more realistic aim than getting a win.
Predictions
Without further ado, a few things I expect…
- Approximate break-even on faceoffs. However, if things don’t go well early and the Hounds get a transition opportunity or two, look for Charlie Keady to take some draws. Michigan will rely on him to muck things up and not give up fast-break opportunities.
- Michigan’s bugaboo this year has been a team with a really good attackman or two. Loyola has four. The Wolverines will give up a couple really easy looks, leaving Gerald Logan out to dry.
- That said, Logan will also save a few that he shouldn’t, to still have a decent day statistically. Loyola’s snipers can only be stopped so often, especially with the looks the U-M defense will give them, but Logan will be up to the task as much as possible.
- With Hawkins back for Loyola, Michigan’s freshman midfielders should struggle bigtime. Whether that’s Mike Hernandez turning it over (as we’ve seen him do this year) or Kyle Jackson ripping shots that have little chance of scoring (ditto), that will be a weakness.
- With the midfielders minimized, an attackman will lead the team in scoring – I’m thinking a fully healthy Will Meter has a good chance, though leading U-M in this one might mean two goals and an assist.
Although the Wolverines have made progress this season, this is one of the toughest tests to date. The psychological boost provided by the first game in Michigan Stadium this year is an x-factor, but that can only mean so much. Loyola gets the 16-7 win.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.