Detroit is 1-1 in the league, and although the Titans are in a seat to likely make the MAAC Tournament, it would behoove them to not drop a contest against another one of those middle-tier teams. Marist is just that, and winning this one would all-but punch the Titans’ ticket, barring a total collapse.
Marist
RAWR!
April 4, 2014. 11a.m. EDT
Titan Field.
Gameday Central. Live stats.
@DetroitTitans. @GreatLaxState.
Detroit Preview. Game Notes.
Marist Preview.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. The figures are also adjusted for strength of schedule, and Marist is a bottom-15 program in that department. All numbers take that into account.
| Marist 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 59.89 (54) |
| Poss% | 51.39 (29) |
| Off. Eff. | 34.37 (22) |
| Def. Eff. | 41.27 (64) |
| Pyth% | 40.27 (46) |
Marist plays pretty slowly, so the stylistic difference (Detroit is on the opposite end of the spectrum) should be an interesting thing to watch. As you’d expect for a team that tries to play slowly, they’re pretty good at possessing the ball. Combine those two, and it means very few possessions for opponents.
Unfortunately for Marist, whenever those opponents do get the ball, it has been pretty easy to find the back of the net. The Red Foxes have one of the five worst defenses in the country.
On the other side of things, Marist actually has a pretty good offense, albeit against some pretty poor defenses. Add those two factors up (with the possession advantage, and you have a team that’s a half-dozen spots ahead of UDM in the overall rankings.
Offense
Marist has five guys with double-digit points, and all of them are between 22-30 total on the year. That quintet is responsible for the vast majority of the scoring, and there’s a precipitous dropoff after that.
The main feeder is freshman attack J.D. Recor, who has nine goals and 21 assists on the year, tying him for the team lead with 30 points. He’s the only player with significant playing time to put up more assists than goals.
Sophomore attack Joseph Radin is tied with Recor in total points, though his distribution is very different. He has 26 goals and four assists on the season. The third starting attackman is Colin Joka, a junior with 20 goals and four assists.
Junior midfielders Drew Nesmith (20G, 2A) and Mike Begley (14G, 8A) are tied with 20 points, and they’re the final double-digit scorers to date for the Red Foxes. Fellow junior Patrick Eaker is physically intimidating at 6-0, 200, but even though he’s started all nine games, he has just two goals on seven shots. He’s going to be more prominently mentioned in the next section.
The Red Foxes have assisted fewer than half their goals (as you’d expect with four scorers so heavy on goals and only one with plenty of assists), so hard slides to the crease won’t be punished as much as they might be against more pass-happy teams.
Defense
Rarely do I lead off this section with a short-stick D-middie, but since I talked about Patrick Eaker in the previous discussion, here we are. He’s the team’s non-FO leader in GBs, and a big part of gobbling up possessions for the Red Foxes. Senior Gannon Brown is a bit more of an offensive threat, but still a defensive specialist.
Dave Scarcello has been Marist’s main goalie, earning most of the starts and playing all but just over 60 minutes on the year. His save percentage of .484 is pretty poor, but it’s better than backup Brian Corrigan, who is at .261. That’s not a weird sample size deal, with 66 minutes across four games and two starts on the year. Goalie play (and, as always, you don’t know how much they’re being sold out by those in front of them) has been poor.
Juniors Nick Struble, Karl Kreshpane, and Mike Collins are the starting defensemen (though two of Strubles starts have gone to freshman Frankie Brier). Struble and Kreshpane have five CTs each on the year, with eight ground balls apiece. LSM Jesse Brown is the bigger takeaway guy with six caused turnovers and 13 ground balls on the year.
Despite a decent ability to take away the ball (spread across several players – there’s nobody to single out as the biggest threat there), Marist’s defense is poor. Opponents are assisting on well over half their goals, so Marist isn’t able to take away team play to a certain extent.
Special Teams
Marist is a good faceoff team, with sophomore Dominic Montemurro at .555 on draws, picking up more than a third of his ground ball opportunities on those. SSDM Patrick Eaker is also a big threat coming off the wing, allowing Marist to be really good in this area of the game. Given that it’s one with which Detroit regularly struggles, it may spell trouble.
Marist is an excellent clearing team (helping their offense be successful, I guess), failing just over 7% of the time. They make it up coming the other way though, choosing not to emphasize the ride and causing failed clears at about the same rate. Other than not giving possessions away, their emphasis in the possession game is more about the faceoffs.
Marist commits a ton of penalties (nearly twice as many as opponents), and that’s despite most of the possession in games coming in their own sticks – meaning fewer opportunities to commit infractions. They also stink at stopping the opponent EMO, allowing goals nearly 40% of the time. Going the other way, they score barely more than a quarter of the time. A clean game plays to their advantage.
Big Picture
As mentioned at the top of the post, this game is all about jockeying for position in the league. A Titan loss drops them to the bottom three teams in the league (those that will miss the MAAC Tournament), and causes them to really nead a strong run through the final three conference games.
A win, on the other hand, would move UDM to (at worst) a tie for third in the league, with head-to-head wins over teams No. 5 and 6. That would all-but ensure entry to the MAAC Championships, assuming Monmouth isn’t able to pick them off down the stretch.
Detroit has gotten hot late in each of the past two seasons, and a home win over a fellow program jockeying for position in the league would be a big step toward making it three years in a row.
Predictions
Detroit should be able to put up some goals in this one – assuming they can get the ball – and might have trouble slowing down Marist. Could be a fun one.
- Marist has plenty of success on draws. UDM’s Damien Hicks is a decent enough specialist, but given that most of the Titans’ struggles on draws have been on account of wing play, that’s trouble. Marist’s strength appears to come on the wings, and that should lead to a 60% or better mark for the Red Foxes.
- Detroit’s offense should be able to see some success. The attackmen will be able to find openings to either dish or score, and if they can use their dodging and finishing ability to suck in the defense, midfielders like Scotty Drummond and Mike Birney will have room to bomb from outside. UDM generated much of its offense through the midfield against Quinnipiac, but it’s likely that things will swing back in the opposite direction for this one.
- Detroit’s man-up offense is one of the nation’s best, and against a team like Marist, they should have plenty of opportunities. Making the most of them – no unforced turnovers, please – will be a key.
- Jason Weber’s performance should determine the outcome of this game. He’s been outstanding in the past few weeks, and keeping up that form should slow down the Marist offense, and create some opportunities to quickly clear for transition opportunities.
I feel good about the Titans’ chances in this one. They’re coming off a major letdown against Quinnipiac, but this program’s identity is such that they’ll use that as a chip-on-shoulder motivational tool, rather than a reason to spiral downward. Behind hot goaltending, UDM wins a slog, 10-8.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.