Michigan has already done several unprecedented things this season: winning multiple games, qualifying for the conference tournament, playing a ranked opponent to overtime. They have an opportunity to beat a ranked opponent for the first time tomorrow.
Fairfield
#Stagswag
April 5, 2014. 5 p.m. EDT
Michigan Stadium. FREE.
Live stats. Live video ($).
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Michigan preview. .pdf notes.
Fairfield preview. .pdf notes.
Tempo-Free Profile
The TempoFreeLax.com numbers displayed here are up to date for this season, since there’s enough data nationally that the numbers are pretty meaningful. Fairfield is a good team, but they’ve played a pretty easy strengths of schedule this season, as well. They’re No. 45 nationally in that metric, worse than every program ranked ahead of them in the TFL ratings.
| Fairfield 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Pace | 61.60 (48) |
| Poss% | 50.32 (34) |
| Off. Eff. | 37.98 (10) |
| Def. Eff. | 27.07 (13) |
| Pyth% | 74.84 (11) |
Fairfield plays a relatively slow pace, and they’re right in the middle of the country when it comes to possession percentage, barely a tick over 50%. Those two factors together mean few possessions for both teams, but in about even proportions.
It’s in the settled ends of the field that Fairfield is doing really well. The offense is a step ahead of the defense, with a top-10 unit nationally. That’s pretty good (with the caveats about schedule strength applying).
The defense isn’t so far behind, and would be considered an elite unit itself, even playing for a worse team. Fortunately for Fairfield, they have the well-rounded squad that allows both sides of the ball to help the common goal.
Offense
Fairfield’s offense is really good, so it isn’t surprising to see a lot of impressive statlines. Seven different Stags have double-digit points on the year, and those individuals step down in nice increments from 33 down to 13.
The 33-point man is junior attack Tristan Sperry. His points are pretty evenly distributed, with 18 goals and 15 assists. Linemate Colin McLinden is right behind him with 32 points, but might even be the team’s leading scorer if he hadn’t missed a game earlier this spring. He has 11 goals and 21 assists, so he’s your bigtime feeder.
The third starting attack is a mystery only because three separate players in the top six scorers are listed as hybrid attack/midfielders – and their roles have rotated throughout the year. Both senior Eric Warden and junior Drew Federico are listed with several starts at attack (usually with the other starting on midfield, but in one game they were both listed as attack starters), freshman Dave Fleming has started twice, and junior Nick Guida once. If one thing is clear, it’s that Fairfield has a lot of guys who can play multiple roles – and they change interchange throughout a game. Michigan will likely pole the “midfielder” who is also an attackman the majority of the game.
It is Warden who is the leading scorer among that group, with 25 goals and just two assists. Fleming has 15 goals and four assists, and Federico has 10 and three. Guida has only played in two games this year, and I assume he’s out with injury.
Among true midfielders, TJ Neubauer (who has played in all 10 games but hasn’t started any, if for no other reason than to allow the many A/Ms to get on the field at once) is the leading scorer, with 21 goals and two assists. Jake Knostman has started every game, but has only nine goals and four assists, to close out the double-digit point scorers.
Fairfield’s versatility on offense could be considered one of the Stags’ calling cards, and that’s something sure to give Michigan fits. While there are some good defensive players in the Wolverines’ arsenal, there are also weak points to exploit, and switching responsibilities on offense is a good way to get those weaknesses primed for attack.
Defense
As noted above, Fairfield’s defense is only slightly behind its offense in the realm of the elite. That effort is keyed by a pretty good (though only “pretty good”) ability to force turnovers. Senior Greg Perraut is the team’s leader with 10 on the year, though classmate Toby Armour, sophomore LSM Conor Barr, and even keeper(!) Jack Murphy have nine apiece. Junior Max Buchanan is the third longpole starter, though he has a pedestrian six turnovers on the year.
Freshman LSM Jay Walsh also plays significantly – only slightly less than Barr, and I would estimate both cycle through at close D on occasion, given the limited playing time for other poles – and actually has seven CTs on the year. Junior Bryan Barry is the top SSDM, with 17 ground balls and only two shots on the year. He’s not a takeaway guy with only two on the year, but a solid on-ball defender.
Murphy has played the vast majority of time between the pipes, and despite the overall quality of the Fairfield defense, he has a good-not-great save percentage of .549 (below .600 is still great, but .560 or so is my cutoff for great). If you can get enough good shots on the guy, you can score. Of course, that’s not super-easy to do, and for a team like Michigan, it might be particularly tough.
Special Teams
Fairfield’s mediocrity in the possession game is actually harmed by a ton of struggles on faceoffs, and this should be a matchup that the Wolverines dominate. Leading specialist Michael Roe is only .406, and No. 2 Louis DiGiacomo hits only slightly better at .436. If Brad Lott doesn’t solidly beat both of them (and both should play), it either on account of poor GB play by himself and the wings, or a sign that he’s still not consistent enough to succeed regularly.
Fairfield’s clear is very good, No. 13 in the country, but they’ve faced primarily poor rides to date, so the evidence one way or the other is not established. Given that Michigan is able to ride pretty hard should they desire (albeit giving up a goal 25% of the time or so), there might be an opportunity there. Coming the other way, the Stags are content to give a little pressure and let the opponent mess things up for themselves. Michigan might be susceptible to that, but they won’t see a hard ride.
The Stags are pretty clean – committing only a few more penalties per game than their terrible opponents – so that aspect of the game might be even. Given Michigan’s three-year trend of being pretty clean (but dirty in the biggest games, much to blogger frustration), they might have a slight advantage there. Fairfield scores well and prevents the offense from scoring pretty well when there’s a man advantage either way. It’s pretty mush in line with their overall quality though, and not a significant factor.
Big Picture
Michigan has already qualified for the final ECAC tournament (thanks, Bellarmine!), and so their big-picture goals at this point are basically accomplished. Yeah, they want to win every game on the schedule, but each of them is a goal unto itself, not a means to a larger end. That’s not a negative, just the lay of the land at this point in the season.
That said, Fairfield looks to be far and away the best team in the league. That means Michigan might want to avoid facing the Stags in the conference tournament… which means beating them this time around. If Michigan has to win once in two meetings, the “don’t show your hand” dynamic is in play almost as much as the “screw it, we’re not that good in either meeting” one.
Preictions
Fairfield is pretty good, Michigan is middling-at-best. Let’s predict…
- Brad Lott dominates faceoffs. I understand this is a risky prediction, given his epic streakiness, but he’s really good, and Fairfield is really not. He should be able to keep wing play from being relevant.
- Fairfield has so many options on offense that it shouldn’t matter where Michigan is (and is not) weak. They can invert with two midfielders, they can throw it to the attack, they can do it all. With Michigan’s handful of obvious weaknesses, they will find a way.
- Michigan will ride harder than anybody Fairfield’s seen yet, but it might not net them much. I think Fairfield won’t hit the season average on clear, but the success percentage won’t mean much.
- U-M’s offense should find some openings, but it won’t be enough of them to really pull. Away. Fairfield’s close D strength and Michigan’s midfield emphasis should help the Wolverines find some goals, but not many.
Michigan will be able to possess enough to keep the score from getting out of hand, but the Stags’ offense might be even better than it gets credit for. Given that Fairfield, not Michigan, wants to slow things down, the priorities are all out of whack. Stags win it, 11-8.
Share your predictions, discussion, etc. in the comments.